USA
Başkan Donald Trump’ın küresel bazda %10’luk temel tarife uygulamasını yeniden teyit etmesi ve ticaret anlaşması olmayan ülkelere %41’e varan misilleme tarifeleri getirmesiyle, ABD dolar endeksi Cuma günü 100 seviyesine yakın seyretti ve iki ayın en yüksek seviyelerinde kaldı. Trump ayrıca mevcut vergileri aşmak için başka ülkeler üzerinden gönderildiği düşünülen mallara %40 oranında ek gümrük vergisi uygulanacağını açıkladı. Bu da ticaret gerilimini artırdı ve doları güvenli liman olarak cazip hale getirdi. Perşembe günü açıklanan veriler, Fed’in tercih ettiği enflasyon göstergesi olan çekirdek PCE fiyatlarının Haziran’da aylık %0,3 ve yıllık %2,8 arttığını gösterdi. Bu da Eylül ayında faiz indirimi beklentilerini zayıflattı. Dolar, büyük para birimleri karşısında güçlü kalmaya devam ederken, yen karşısında dört ayın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Borsa cephesinde ise, ABD endeks vadeli işlemleri Cuma günü satıcılı seyrediyor. Dün seans kapanışı sonrası bilanço açıklayan, Amazon, mevcut çeyrek için zayıf gelir tahmini açıklamasının ardından yaklaşık %7 değer kaybederken, Apple ise kazanç ve gelir beklentilerini aşmasının ardından %2 yükseldi. Dow %0,74, S&P 500 %0,37 ve Nasdaq %0,03 geriledi. Dolayısıyla bir önceki gün açıklanan Microsoft ve Meta’daki kazançlar, yenilenen ticaret gerilimleri ve süregelen ekonomik belirsizlik nedeniyle piyasa genelindeki zayıflığı dengelemeye yetmedi. Yatırımcılar, bugün ekonomik gücün önemli bir göstergesi ve gelecekteki para politikası kararlarını etkileyebilecek olan Temmuz ayı istihdam raporuna odaklandı.

 

Eurozone
Avrupa piyasaları, ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın bugün yürürlüğe girecek olan %41’e varan yeni gümrük tarifelerini açıklamasının ardından Perşembe günkü kayıpları sürdürerek Cuma günü zayıf bir açılışa hazırlanıyor. Piyasalar bugün, Avrupa Merkez Bankası’nın (ECB) politika yoluna dair sinyaller açısından yakından izlenen taze Euro Bölgesi enflasyon verilerini değerlendirecek. Bölge enflasyonunun %1,90’a ılımlı şekilde yavaşlaması, çekirdek enflasyonun ise önceki aya benzer şekilde %2,30 oranında gerçekleşmesi bekleniyor. Öte yandan bilanço raporları da odakta kalmaya devam ediyor. AXA, Euronext, IAG, Saint-Gobain ve Pearson’dan önemli şirketlerin bilançoları bekleniyor. Ek olarak Daimler Truck, Kuzey Amerika’daki zayıflayan talebi gerekçe göstererek yıl sonu satış ve kâr beklentilerini düşürdü. Açılış öncesi işlemlerinde Euro Stoxx 50 ve Stoxx 600 vadeli endeksleri %0,6 geriledi.

 

Türkiye
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)'s summary from its latest meeting indicated that preliminary data indicated temporary increases in monthly inflation in July due to factors specific to the month. The CBRT's gross reserves increased from $168.6 billion to $171.8 billion last week, while net reserves rose from $62.8 billion to $64.5 billion. Total currency-protected deposits decreased by 17.3 billion Turkish Lira last week to 489.2 billion Turkish Lira. In the US, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed monitors as its favorite inflation indicator, rose in line with expectations at 0.3% monthly in June, while the annual increase was slightly above expectations at 2.8%. The data had no impact on pricing. Today's US employment data will be the focus. As of 08:10 this morning, the USD/TRY exchange rate is trending slightly higher, around 40.66.

 

EUR/USD
Following the Fed's interest rate decision, the euro continued its decline, nearing $1.14, its lowest level since mid-June, under pressure from a stronger dollar and the weakening of interest rate cut expectations for September. Technically, the EUR/USD pair entered a sharp correction after a strong uptrend. We are monitoring the 1.1425 level for the EUR/USD pair, which is trading below the 20-50 EMA. In the event of a potential recovery, the 1.1482-1.1483 levels could again act as resistance, with a persistence above the relevant level. If the selling pressure continuations, a break above the 1.1425 support level and the 1.1389-1.1366 levels can be monitored as support. Intraday technical levels are as follows;
Supports: 1.1389 – 1.1366 – 1.1331
Resistances: 1.1448 – 1.1483 – 1.1506

 

GBP/USD
The British pound fell to $1.320 on Friday, its lowest level since May 12, as concerns about the UK's economic outlook and expected interest rate cuts weighed on market sentiment. Negative expectations below 1.3223 are at the forefront for the GBP/USD pair. In the event of a potential decline, the 1.3166-1.3127 levels could be monitored as support. On the downside, any reactionary buying at the 1.3127 support level, supported by the 200 EMA indicator, may require stability above 1.3223 for positive expectations to come to the fore. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.3180 – 1.3124 – 1.3022
Resistances: 1.3337 – 1.3440 – 1.3495

 

XAU/USD
Gold prices fell to their worst weekly low since the end of June, under pressure from a stronger US dollar after President Trump imposed higher tariffs on multiple countries.
Moving towards its performance, it traded around $ 3,290 per ounce on Friday. Movements below 3292 for gold may ease towards the 3271-3252 levels. It may be necessary to see stability above 3292 for the upward trend to come to the fore again. For the positive expectation to be confirmed, the 330 resistance level can be expected to be overcome. Intraday technical levels;
Supports: 3271 – 3252 – 3230
Resistors: 3311 – 3333 – 3352

 

 

XAG/USD
Silver prices traded around $36.60 per ounce on Friday after a strengthening dollar index put pressure on precious metals. Technically, we are monitoring the 36.72 level for silver. A break above this level may be necessary for upward movement. During increases, resistance levels between 37.24 and 37.78 can be monitored. If the pressure below the 36.72 resistance continues, declines towards the 36.18 and 35.66 levels are possible. Intraday technical levels;
Supports: 36.18 – 35.66 – 35.12
Resistances: 37.24 – 37.78 – 38.30

 

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude futures closed higher on Friday, trading %1 higher than the previous session, as markets assessed the economic consequences of US tariffs and their potential impact on global energy demand.
The price continued its steep decline, falling towards $71 per barrel. Technically, we are monitoring the 71.86 level for oil. For the recovery to continue, it may be necessary to see it stay above this level. If the pressure around 71.86 continues, the 70.93 - 70.16 levels can be monitored as support. Intraday technical levels are as follows;
Supports: 70.933 – 70.06- 69.13
Resistances: 72.73 – 73.66 – 74.53

 

Crude Oil (WTI)
Technically, we are monitoring the 69.43 level for crude oil. A recovery above this level could target 70.31-71.27. In case of sell-offs below the 70.31 resistance, 68.47-67.59 levels can be monitored as support. Intraday technical levels are as follows:
Supports: 68.47 – 67.59 – 66.63
Resistances: 70.31 – 71.27 – 72.15

 

Nasdaq (Near Term)
The Dow fell %0.74, the S&P 500 fell %0.37 and the Nasdaq fell %0.03. US index futures fell on Friday as investors awaited the closely watched July employment report. Amazon fell approximately %7 after a weak revenue forecast for the current quarter, while Apple gained %2 after beating earnings and revenue estimates. Technically, we are monitoring the 23484 level for the Nasdaq index futures contract. Below this level, selling is expected to continue up to the 23123 support. 2At the same time, if the 23484 resistance opens in reaction buying around this level, which is supported by the 20 EMA, 23677 could become the target. Intraday technical levels are as follows;
Supports: 23123 – 23930 – 22570
Resistors: 23484 – 23677 – 24037

 

Dow Jones (Near Term)
In the short term, we are technically monitoring the DJ index at 44441. A strong close above this level may be necessary for the rise to continue. In the event of a potential decline, a breakdown of the 44032 support level could accelerate the decline towards the 43797 support level. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 44032 – 43792 – 43387
Resistors: 44441 – 44677 – 45086

 

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