• USA'last week ABD ile AB arasında imzalanan ticaret anlaşmasıyla çoğu Avrupa malına uygulanan tarife %30’dan %15’e indirilirken, Çin’le yürütülen görüşmelerin Ağustos ortasındaki tarife süresinin üç ay uzatılması yönünde ilerlediği bildirildi. Öte yandan Trump, Hindistan, Kanada, Tayvan ve Güney Afrika için yeni tarifeleri yürürlüğe koyarken, Meksika’ya 90 günlük süre tanındı. Çarşamba günü Fed faiz oranlarını sabit tuttu, ancak iki üyenin 25 baz puanlık faiz indirimi talebi karara muhalefet etmesi dikkat çekti. Başkan Powell, Eylül için karar alınmadığını belirtirken, Trump güçlü gelen büyüme (%3) ve istihdam verileri sonrası Fed’e faiz indirimi çağrısını yineledi. Temmuz ayı Conference Board (CB) Tüketici Güveni verisi 97,2 ile hem 95,2 olan önceki seviyeyi hem de 95,9’luk beklentiyi aşarak tüketici iyimserliğinde belirgin bir artışı işaret etti. Öte yandan, Haziran ayı JOLTS verisine göre açık iş pozisyonları 7,77 milyondan 7,44 milyona gerileyerek 7,5 milyonluk beklentinin altına indi; bu durum, şirketlerin artan belirsizlik nedeniyle işe alım konusunda daha temkinli davrandığını gösteriyor. Temmuz ayında özel sektör istihdamı ADP verisine göre 104.000 kişi artarken, yıllık maaş artışı %4,4 seviyesinde gerçekleşti. Ekonominin ikinci çeyrekte %3 oranında büyümesi ise ilk çeyrekteki %0,5’lik daralmanın ardından güçlü bir toparlanmaya işaret etti ve beklentilerin üzerinde geldi. Son olarak, haftalık işsizlik başvuruları 1.000 kişi artarak 218.000’e çıktı; bu hafif artışa rağmen iş gücü piyasasının dirençli kaldığı yorumları öne çıkıyor.
  • This week in the USA Markets will focus on data on the international trade balance and the strength of domestic demand. Tuesday's foreign trade balance data will shed light on the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on imports and exports. Developments in manufacturing orders, in particular, could reveal whether these tariffs are supporting domestic manufacturing. Consumer credit data will also be closely watched throughout the week; these data will offer important clues about the spending patterns and borrowing behavior of American consumers. Following last week's weak employment data, Thursday's weekly unemployment claims report will also be critical for investors. Meanwhile, the second-quarter productivity report will be closely watched given the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce. After the Fed holds interest rates steady, the public statements of the FOMC members could be a key determinant. The statements of San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem could shape expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September. Having performed strongly in July, the indices are likely to start the new week cautiously amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

 

  • Last week in the Eurozone piyasalar ABD ile imzalanan yeni ticaret anlaşmasının etkisiyle pozitif bir başlangıç yaptı. Anlaşma kapsamında Avrupa mallarına uygulanan tarifelerin %30’dan %15’e düşürülmesi, özellikle otomotiv, havacılık ve ilaç sektörlerinde olumlu karşılandı. Airbus, Safran, Roche ve Novo Nordisk gibi şirketlerin hisselerinde artış yaşanırken, çelik, alüminyum ve alkollü içki üreticileri gibi bazı sektörler ya anlaşma dışında kaldı ya da yüksek tarife uygulamasıyla karşı karşıya kaldı. aftanın  ilerleyen günlerinde bilanço sezonunun zayıf gelen açıklamaları ve ABD’deki Fed toplantısına yönelik belirsizlikler satış baskısını artırdı. Sanofi, Ferrari ve Schneider Electric gibi büyük şirketlerin beklentilerin altında kalan sonuçları sonrası Euro Stoxx 50 endeksi Perşembe günü %1,6 gerileyerek son bir haftanın en düşük seviyesine indi. Ferrari, %11,7’lik sert düşüşüyle otomotiv endeksinde domino etkisi yarattı. ABD’nin %15 oranında uygulamaya koyduğu yeni tarifelerin etkisi, özellikle içecek ve tüketim malları hisselerinde hissedilir şekilde görüldü. Euro Bölgesi’nde 2025 yılının ikinci çeyreğine ilişkin öncü GSYH verisi, ekonominin yıllık bazda %1,4 büyüdüğünü ortaya koydu. Bu oran, bir önceki çeyreğe kıyasla hafif gerileme gösterse de piyasa beklentisi olan %1,2’nin üzerinde gerçekleşerek ekonomik dayanıklılığa işaret etti. Temmuz ayında tüketici güven endeksi 0,6 puan artarak -14,7 seviyesine yükseldi ve son dört ayın en yüksek düzeyine ulaştı. Hanehalkı finansman beklentilerindeki iyileşme ve büyük harcamalara yönelik artan eğilim bu yükselişte etkili olurken, genel ekonomik görünüme ilişkin beklentilerde bozulma gözlendi. Sanayi güven endeksi ise Temmuz’da -10,4 seviyesine çıkarak hem bir önceki aya göre hem de piyasa beklentilerine göre daha olumlu bir tablo sundu.
  • This week in the Eurozone The data to be released will provide important signals that will shape investors' perceptions of the economic outlook. The Sentix Investor Confidence data, to be released on Monday, will reflect market participants' expectations for the next six months in the Eurozone. The index's recent signs of recovery may confirm that the recovery is continuing. The S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI data, to be released later in the week, will provide insight into the momentum of economic activity across the region, particularly led by the services sector. A PMI reading above the 50 threshold could indicate expansion and be viewed positively by markets. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide up-to-date signals about cost inflation, which will be crucial for the European Central Bank's monetary policy stance. Higher PPI data could raise final consumer prices and fuel inflation concerns. Retail sales figures, due to close the week, will provide a direct indicator of the strength of domestic demand. All of these data will be decisive in the short-term direction of European markets. Last week, the dollar index (DXY) closed the week at 99.14, gaining 1.53 TP3T. 10-year US Treasury yields closed the week at 1.4. US stock markets were mixed last week. The S&P 500 lost 1.6 TP3T, the Nasdaq lost 2.2 TP3T, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2 TP3T. Gold closed the week with a gain of 1.01 TP3T at $3,363. Brent crude oil also gained 2.49 TP3T to $67.96. This week's headlines in global markets include the New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations and PMI in the US, Sentix Investor Confidence and PMI in the Eurozone, Industrial Production and PMI in Germany, BoE Interest Rate Decision and PMI in the UK, Current Account in Japan, Trade Balance in China, and CPI and PPI in the domestic market.

 

USAAmong the key data points this week, the ISM Services PMI and Trade Balance are being closely watched. The extent to which the expansion trend in the services sector continues could also provide important signals regarding the impact of the foreign trade balance on growth. After increasing factory orders by 8.2% month-over-month in June, this figure is expected to decline by 4.9% month-over-month in July. This sharp decline could indicate slowing order inflows, particularly for items such as non-defense capital goods and transportation equipment, and could indicate a loss of momentum in private sector investment spending. On the trade balance front, the June data is expected to show a foreign trade deficit of $67.6 billion. The deficit announced in May was $71.5 billion. If expectations are realized, it could be interpreted as either a slower growth in imports relative to exports or signs of a recovery in exports, which could positively impact second-quarter growth figures. The S&P Global Composite PMI is projected to arrive at 54.6 in July, in line with the previous month. This level confirms that economic activity in both manufacturing and services sectors is vibrant and remains in expansion. The S&P Global Services PMI, specifically for the services sector, is expected to remain stable at 55.2 in July. This strong level indicates that demand in the services sector remains resilient and consumer spending remains buoyant. The Services PMI, to be released by the ISM, is expected to rise from 50.8 to 51.5 in July. This increase could indicate that the services sector is regaining momentum and growth signals are strengthening; new orders and employment sub-items will be particularly critical here. Weekly jobless claims are expected to rise from 218,000 to 220,000. This limited increase indicates that there is no significant deterioration in the labor market, but that hiring has slowed in some regions. If a trend beyond seasonal effects is observed, it could indicate that the Fed is making further adjustments to the labor market.
may influence their evaluations.

 

EurozoneThis week's economic data will be closely watched, particularly for signs of recovery in the services sector and the course of retail sales. Sentix Investor Confidence and S&P Global PMI data offer important clues about the overall outlook for the region's economy, while PPI and retail sales will shed light on inflation trends and domestic demand dynamics. The Sentix Investor Confidence index is expected to rise from 4.5 to 6.2 in July. This increase indicates that investors' economic expectations for the Eurozone are gradually improving.
The S&P Global Composite PMI for July is projected to rise to 51.0 from the previous 50.6. This rise indicates continued expansion in both the services and manufacturing sectors and that the regional economy is experiencing a moderate recovery. The S&P Global Services PMI is expected to rise to 51.2 from 50.5. This strengthening in the services sector may suggest a buoyant demand side, supported by private consumption and the tourism season. The Producer Price Index (PPI) had decreased by 0.6% in June on a monthly basis; it fell by 0.9% in July.
This outlook could signal short-term upward pressure on producer prices stemming from rising energy costs or intermediate goods prices. Retail sales are projected to rise by 0.4% in June, following a 0.7% contraction in May. This increase could indicate a slight recovery in household spending and strengthening signals of a recovery in domestic consumption. However, such increases will need to be sustained to break the general trend.

 

  • GermanyThis week's data releases in Turkey are particularly important for the performance of the services sector, the foreign trade balance, and trends in industrial production. These data will be crucial in demonstrating how the country is managing the balance between weak domestic and external demand. The July composite PMI is expected to decline slightly from 50.4 to 50.3. This indicates continued limited growth in the private sector. An index above 50 indicates a weak recovery, not a contraction, in the economy. The services PMI is projected to rise from 49.7 to 50.1. This increase could be interpreted as a positive signal for the services sector to return to growth territory. A partial recovery in consumer demand and the summer season are likely to have boosted momentum in services. Factory orders for June are expected to increase by 1.3%, following a 1.4% decrease the previous month. This recovery expectation may indicate a partial recovery in external demand. Orders from the automotive and machinery sectors, in particular, are believed to have contributed to production. The June trade surplus is expected to narrow slightly from €18.4 billion to €18.3 billion. This outlook indicates that the balance between exports and imports is largely maintained. While external demand is not strong, Germany still maintains a surplus in its foreign trade. Industrial production is expected to contract by 0.6% in June, following a 1.2% increase in May. This decline is primarily attributed to the slowdown in energy and intermediate goods production. This fluctuation in industrial production raises questions about the durability of the recovery.
  • England While the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision is the most prominent data set to be released this week, the July PMI data will also provide important signals regarding the course of economic activity. The composite PMI is expected to decline from 52.0 to 51.0 in July. This decline indicates a slowdown in growth across the private sector. While the index is still above the 50 threshold, indicating that activity remains in expansionary territory, the loss of momentum is noteworthy. The services PMI is also forecast to decline from 52.8 to 51.2. This could indicate a weakening in demand in the services sector, the main driver of the UK economy. In particular, the cautious stance in consumer spending and business investment may be behind this decline. The Bank of England's August interest rate decision is being closely watched by markets. The policy rate is expected to be cut from %4.25 to %4.00. A move in this direction could signal a shift to easing monetary policy in response to weakening economic activity and declining inflation. The BoE's decision text and potential guidance will also be crucial for market pricing.
  • JapanThis week's data, particularly regarding the services sector, consumer spending, and the foreign trade balance, will be closely watched. The data to be released will provide important clues about both the strength of domestic demand and the overall economic outlook. The services PMI is expected to rise from 51.7 to 53.5 in July. This rise indicates stronger growth in the services sector and an ongoing economic recovery. Household spending is projected to decline by 1.3% to 3.0% month-on-month in June, from a 1.3% increase of 4.6%. This decline could indicate that Japanese consumers are cutting back on spending and demand is weakening. Annual spending is expected to fall from 1.3% to 2.6%. The annual increase in spending is expected to continue.
    While positive, the slowdown is notable. Japan is expected to post a current account surplus in June, but the amount is expected to fall from 3.43 trillion yen to 1.48 trillion yen compared to the previous month. This decline could indicate a decline in the foreign trade surplus or a decline in investment revenues. However, the continued surplus indicates that Japan is not dependent on external resources and remains in a strong position in terms of foreign exchange earnings.
  • ChineseForeign trade data to be released this week in Turkey is a focus for markets. The trade balance figures for July, in particular, will provide important clues about the trajectory of global trade and the performance of the Chinese economy driven by foreign demand. The July foreign trade balance is expected to decline from $114.77 billion to $103.5 billion. This expected contraction could signal a period of slowing export growth or a recovery in imports. Despite this decline in the foreign trade surplus, a positive balance is maintained, demonstrating that China is maintaining its export-heavy structure, which supports its foreign exchange reserves. However, the weakening contribution of net exports suggests that growth needs to be supported by more domestic demand.
  • Domestically bu hafta enflasyon verileri ekonomi gündeminin merkezinde yer alıyor. Özellikle Temmuz ayına ilişkin açıklanacak Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) ve Üretici Fiyat Endeksi (ÜFE) rakamları, hem fiyatlar genel düzeyindeki eğilimleri hem de Merkez Bankası’nın para politikasına yönelik beklentileri şekillendirmesi açısından yakından takip edilecek. Aylık ve yıllık bazda açıklanacak bu veriler, iç talep koşulları, maliyet baskıları ve kur geçişkenliği gibi dinamiklerin fiyatlar üzerindeki etkisine dair önemli sinyaller sunacak. TÜFE’deki (2003=100) değişim 2025 yılı Haziran ayında bir önceki aya göre %1,37 artış, bir önceki yılın Aralık ayına göre %16,67 artış, bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre %35,05 artış ve on iki aylık ortalamalara göre %43,23 artış olarak gerçekleşti. Yİ-ÜFE (2003=100) 2025 yılı Haziran ayında bir önceki aya göre %2,46 artış, bir önceki yılın Aralık ayına göre %15,71 artış, bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre %24,45 artış ve on iki aylık ortalamalara göre %28,34 artış gösterdi. TCMB tarafından haftalık olarak açıklanan menkul kıymet istatistiklerine göre yurt dışı yerleşikler 21 Temmuz- 25 Temmuz 2025 tarihlerinde hisse senetlerinde 205,18mn USD net alış gerçekleştirdi. Böylece yurtdışı yerleşikler son beş haftada toplam 1,075 milyar alış gerçekleştirdi. 21 Temmuz- 25 Temmuz haftasında DİBS (kesin alım) tarafında 270,96mn USD alış gerçekleşirken, ÖST tarafında 1,42mn USD alış kaydedildi. Böylelikle toplam portföyde, yurt dışı yerleşikler 21 Temmuz25 Temmuz haftasında 477,56mn USD tutarında net alış gerçekleştirmiş oldu. Yurt dışı yerleşikler 2025 yılında hisse senetlerinde 1661,88mn USD tutarında alış yaptılar. Yabancılar
    In 2024, they realized net sales of $2,696.10 million in stocks, and net purchases of $1,389 million in 2023. In 2025, there were sales of $989.44 million in government bonds and net purchases of $501.83 million in private equity securities. Since the beginning of 2025, non-residents have purchased $1,174.27 million in the total portfolio. In 2024, non-residents made net purchases of $13,724.71 million in the total portfolio.

 

  • Last week in the markets
    Last week's headlines in global markets included the Fed's interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls in the US, the unemployment rate and preliminary GDP figures in the Eurozone, the unemployment rate and preliminary GDP figures in Germany, the S&P global manufacturing PMI in the UK, the BOJ interest rate decision in Japan, PMI data in China, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Summary and unemployment rate. Last week's key data in the US included labor force, housing, industrial, and consumption data. In particular, the Fed's policy direction was particularly significant, with both regional PMI data and data on the labor market.
    Developments were critical. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July was closely watched for its insights into regional trends in the manufacturing sector. The index rose from -12.7 to 0.9 in July, signaling a strong recovery in the sector. This recovery signal indicates that the contraction has slowed and a partial recovery has begun in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 0 confirms that activity in the sector is generally positive. The preliminary Goods Trade Balance data for June was expected to rise from -96.4 billion to -98.4 billion, but narrowed to -85.9 billion. This narrowing of the foreign trade deficit suggests a partial recovery in exports or a slowdown in imports. This suggests that the negative impact of net foreign demand on GDP may be more limited. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was announced at 97.2 points in July, above expectations of 95.9. This rise suggests that households are becoming more positive about the economic outlook and that spending may be strengthening. The JOLTS (Job Openings and Turnover Rate) data decreased from 7.7 million to 7.43 million in June. This decrease reveals that employers are being more cautious in opening new positions and that signals of a cooling in the labor market are becoming more evident. ADP private sector employment increased by 104 thousand in July. The expectation was 75 thousand. The data released by the ADP is being closely watched as it is the leading data before non-farm payrolls. The data, which exceeded expectations, indicates that the labor market is improving. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures were realized at %3.5 last quarter. While it was expected to decrease to %2.4 in the second quarter, it decreased to %2.50, below expectations. This decrease indicates that the demand-side pressure of inflation has diminished and that the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance in its interest rate policy. The US economy contracted by %-0.5 in the first quarter; While a strong recovery of %2.4 was expected in the preliminary data for the second quarter, GDP was announced as %3.0, even above this expectation.
    This could signal to markets that the US is moving away from recession concerns and that economic activity is reviving. The GDP Price Index, which stood at %3.8 in the previous quarter, fell to %2.0, despite this quarter's preliminary data expecting a decline to %2.2. This development could keep hopes of easing monetary policy alive, indicating that cost-push inflationary pressures are easing. Pending home sales, which rose by 1.8 in May, were expected to increase by %0.2 in June, but fell by %0.8, contrary to expectations. This suggests that interest rates and high prices continue to pressure demand in the housing market. The Fed was expected to keep the policy rate steady at %4.50, and the interest rate decision was announced in line with expectations. At its July meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations due to tariff uncertainties. For the first time since 1993, two Fed members voted against the decision. Thus, the Fed has not changed interest rates in its last five meetings. Speaking after the decision, Fed Chair Powell stated that the current monetary policy stance is well-positioned to respond quickly to potential developments. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for June was expected to be released at %2.8 on an annual basis, the same as the previous month, but was announced at %2.8, in line with expectations. This outlook indicates that inflation remains persistent and may suggest the Fed will not rush to cut interest rates. On a monthly basis, the PCE was expected to rise from %0.2 to %0.3, but it rose in line with expectations. This increase suggests that short-term price pressures may be strengthening and that the upward momentum in consumer spending continues. June's headline personal consumption expenditures data was expected to rise from %2.4 to %2.5 on an annual basis, and the figures were released in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, the % was projected to rise from 0.2 to 0.3, and the data was released in line with these projections. This outlook supports the stronger consumer spending in the second quarter and the acceleration of economic activity. On the weekly unemployment claims front, applications rose from 217,000 to 224,000, but rose to 218,000. This limited increase could be interpreted as a signal of a slowdown in the labor market, but it demonstrates that the overall employment outlook remains resilient. The Chicago PMI for July was expected to rise from 40.4 in June to 42, but rose to 47.1 points, above expectations. This increase indicates improvements in the regional manufacturing sector, but remains negative because it remains below 50. US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, compared to an expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 in July. Average hourly earnings increased monthly by 0.3 points, in line with expectations, and reached 3.9 points annually. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected to be 49.5, was released at 48 points, below expectations. This suggests a contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a PMI below the 50-point threshold is interpreted negatively for the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 60.7 to 61.7 in July, indicating increased consumer confidence in the economy. Michigan Inflation Expectations fell from 5.5 points to 4.5 points. This decline indicates a significant improvement in inflation perception.
  • EurozoneData released last week in the European Central Bank (ECB) provided critical signals regarding the momentum of economic activity and the policy direction of the European Central Bank (ECB). While the preliminary quarterly GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 was expected to come in at 0.0 TL/TRY, it came in slightly above expectations at 0.1 TL/TRY. This suggests that the regional economy remained stagnant for the three-month period and growth has lost momentum. Growth had been recorded at 0.6 TL/TRY in the previous quarter. Annual GDP growth, however, was expected to decline from 1.5 TL/TRY to 1.2 TL/TRY, falling below expectations to 1.4 TL/TRY. This decline signals that growth in the regional economy has yet to stabilize. While the consumer confidence index was expected to improve from -15.3 to -14.7 in July, the index was released in line with expectations. While this limited recovery indicates a relative improvement in household expectations, the index remains in negative territory. This suggests that a strong recovery in consumer spending may be limited in the short term. The industrial confidence index, which was expected to rise from -11.8 to -11.2, reached -10.4, above expectations. While this increase indicates an easing of pessimism in the manufacturing sector, confidence remains well below neutral levels. Low investment appetite and production expectations in the industrial sector remain among the main factors limiting the economic recovery. The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to %6.2 in June, compared to expectations of %6.3. This outlook demonstrates the stability of the Eurozone labor market and suggests that the labor market remains resilient amidst slowing growth. However, the risk of a weakening economic activity spilling over into the labor market in the future remains a concern. The manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 to 49.8 in July. While the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction in the sector, there are some signs of recovery in production. Monthly preliminary core inflation, which stood at %0.4 in June, declined to %-0.2 in July. This suggests downward pressure on price increases and that the ECB may accelerate interest rate cuts. The core CPI, which stood at %2.3 on an annual basis in June, was predicted to remain at a similar level in July. This level indicates that, although the price stability target has been approached, inflation remains firm in items such as services and food. The preliminary CPI for July was announced as %0.0. The preliminary CPI was %0.3 in June. This suggests that the upward momentum in consumer prices has slowed and the disinflation process is gaining momentum. The annual CPI, which was at %2.0 last month, was expected to remain at this level in July, and the CPI was in line with expectations.
  • GermanyEconomic data released last week in Germany included key indicators such as retail sales, GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. These figures provide important signals, particularly regarding economic recovery, consumer spending, and the labor market. While German preliminary quarterly GDP data for the second quarter of 2025 was expected to slow from 0.4 to -0.1 percent, it was released in line with expectations. This suggests that growth is slowing and that the weakness in industrial production is reflecting on overall economic performance. While the preliminary annual GDP data was expected to rise from 0.0 to 0.2 percent, it rose to 0.4 percent, exceeding expectations. This indicates that the German economy is growing compared to the same period last year. Increasing exports and recovering domestic demand are among the main reasons for the economic recovery. Retail sales decreased by -0.6 percent month-on-month in May. June retail sales increased by 0.5%, in line with expectations. This increase may indicate a recovery in consumer spending. On an annual basis, retail sales in June increased by 4.9%, compared to a 2.6% increase in May. The July unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3%, having risen from 6.3% previously to 6.4%. This rate indicates that weak growth continues to pressure the labor market. In an environment where economic activity remains limited, negative employment trends will continue to be closely monitored. Meanwhile, July's preliminary CPI data, expected to rise from 0.0% to 0.2% on a monthly basis, rose to 0.3%. This could indicate a partial acceleration in headline inflation due to rising energy prices or summer-related price increases in some service groups. On an annual basis, the CPI remained stable at 2.0, down from 2.0 to 1.9. This suggests that price increases in Germany have remained stable. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.0 to 49.1 in July. This level indicates a very limited recovery in the sector, but since it remains below 50, it indicates that the manufacturing sector continues to contract.
  • EnglandThe S&P Global Manufacturing PMI stood out in last week's data calendar. This data directly reflects the private sector's production trends and economic momentum. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 48 points from 47.7 in July. This limited rise suggests the sector is still in contraction but is beginning to show signs of a slight recovery despite weak demand conditions.
  • JapanLast week, industrial production, consumer spending, unemployment, and inflation figures were the leading indicators in Japan. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, household confidence, and manufacturing PMI data were crucial for monetary policy and domestic demand. While June's preliminary industrial production data was expected to decrease by -0.7 percent (1.03%), it rose by 1.7 percent (1.03%), contrary to expectations. Industrial production had fallen by -0.11 percent (-0.11 percent) month-on-month in May. The recovery was limited due to weak demand and uncertainty surrounding external demand. This suggests that a strong recovery in production has not yet been seen. While retail sales were expected to increase by 1.8 percent (1.03%) year-on-year in June, they increased by 2.0 percent (1.03%), slightly above expectations. In May, retail sales rose by 1.9 percent (1.03%). This limited increase in demand suggests that consumer confidence remains cautious. The Bank of Japan was expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 0.50 percent (1.03%) in July, and the interest rate announcement was in line with expectations. The Bank of Japan has held its interest rate steady at %0.50 since January. However, an improving business environment and an upward trend in inflation may signal a future interest rate hike. The unemployment rate was %2.5 in May. This rate remained at %2.5 in June, consistent with expectations. This suggests a generally stable labor market and no dramatic employment deterioration. Household confidence in July was expected to be 35.1 points, but it fell 1.4 points to 33.7. Household confidence was reported at 34.5 in May. This deterioration suggests a deterioration in consumer spending and that confidence remains low. In July, the manufacturing PMI, expected to be 48.8, was released at 48.9, slightly above expectations. This result suggests a very limited recovery in the sector. A PMI below 50 suggests that manufacturing weakness may deepen.
  • ChinesePMI data was released last week in Turkey. In July, the composite PMI was announced at 50.2. In June, the composite PMI was announced at 50.7. This level indicates that the overall positive sentiment prevails in the sector but that there has been some contraction. This suggests that economic activity in the private sector has remained stable and that there has been no major disruption. While the Services PMI was expected to be released at 50.3 in July, it was announced with a slight decrease to 50.1. This development indicates a slight contraction in the services sector but a continued positive outlook. In July, the Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 49.7, the same level as in June. This data indicates that the sector is still in contraction, production remains stagnant, and export demand is under pressure. In June, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI was announced at 49.5, below expectations of 50.2. This contraction was due to a decline in export orders and weak domestic demand.
  • Domestically geçen hafta veri takviminde dikkatler, ekonominin genel yönünü ve enflasyonla mücadeledeki duruşu yansıtacak önemli göstergelere çevrildi. Enflasyon beklentilerinden ekonomik güvene, işsizlik oranından hizmet sektöründeki fiyat gelişmelerine kadar birçok veri, hem piyasa aktörleri hem de politika yapıcılar açısından kritik sinyaller sundu. Geçen hafta Temmuz ayına ilişkin sektörel enflasyon beklentileri öne çıktı. Piyasa Katılımcıları Anketi, İktisadi Yönelim Anketi ve Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu iş birliğiyle yürütülen Tüketici Eğilim Anketi ile finansal ve reel sektör uzmanlarının, imalat sanayi firmalarının ve hanehalkının 12 ay sonrası yıllık tüketici enflasyonu beklentileri derlenerek Sektörel Enflasyon Beklentileri elde edilmiştir. 2025 yılı Temmuz ayında 12 ay sonrası yıllık enflasyon beklentileri bir önceki aya göre, piyasa katılımcıları için1,2 puan azalarak yüzde 23,4 seviyesine, reel sektör için 0,8 puan  azalarak yüzde 39,0 seviyesine gerilerken, hanehalkı için 1,5 puan artarak yüzde 54,5 seviyesine yükselmiştir. Bu veriler, toplumun farklı kesimlerinde enflasyon beklentilerinin düştüğünü gösteriyor. Hanehalkı tarafında görülen 1,5 puanlık yükseliş, enflasyonla mücadele sürecinde bir miktar bozulma olduğunu gösteriyor. Piyasa ve reel sektörün de daha ılımlı beklentilere sahip olması, fiyatlama davranışlarının daha dengeli hale gelebileceğini düşündürüyor. Bu gelişmeler, Merkez Bankası’nın enflasyon konusunda sınırlı da olsa ilerleme kaydettiğini gösteriyor. Geçtiğimiz hafta ForInvest enflasyon ve Dolar/TL anketi sonuçlandı. Ekonomistlerin Temmuz ayı Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi’nde (TÜFE) aylık medyan tahmin yüzde 2,40, ortalama tahmin ise yüzde 2,35 artış yönünde gerçekleşti. ForInvest Haber’in 17 ekonomist ile düzenlediği ankete göre, Temmuz ayı yıllık TÜFE verisi için medyan tahmin yüzde 34,06, ortalama tahmin ise yüzde  33,96 artışa işaret etti. TÜFE’de aylık en yüksek ve en düşük artış beklentileri sırasıyla yüzde 2,80 ve yüzde 1,50 şeklinde oluşurken, yıllık tahminler ise yüzde 35,00 ila yüzde 33,00 bandında oluştu. Ekonomik güven endeksi Haziran ayında 96,7 iken, Temmuz ayında %0,4 oranında azalarak 96,3 değerini aldı. Bir önceki aya göre Temmuz ayında tüketici güven endeksi %1,8 oranında azalarak 83,5 değerini, reel kesim (imalat sanayi) güven endeksi %0,5 oranında artarak 98,9 değerini, hizmet sektörü güven endeksi %0,8 oranında azalarak 110,0 değerini, perakende ticaret sektörü güven endeksi %0,5 oranında azalarak 107,9 değerini, inşaat sektörü güven endeksi %2,2 oranında artarak 88,8 değerini aldı. Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması sonuçlarına göre; 15 ve daha yukarı yaştaki kişilerde işsiz sayısı 2025 yılı  Haziran ayında bir önceki aya göre 52 bin kişi artarak 3 milyon 47 bin kişi oldu. İşsizlik oranı ise 0,2  puan artarak %8,6 seviyesinde gerçekleşti. İşsizlik oranı erkeklerde %7,1 iken kadınlarda %11,4 olarak tahmin edildi. Hizmet ÜFE verileri, özellikle enflasyonun yapışkan bileşenlerini ve maliyet geçişkenliğini izlemek açısından öne çıktı H-ÜFE 2025 yılı Haziran ayında bir önceki aya göre %4,72 artış, bir önceki yılın Aralık ayına göre %27,15 artış, bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre %37,40 artış ve on iki aylık ortalamalara göre %45,79 artış gösterdi. Hizmet fiyatlarındaki artış oranı, enflasyonda katılığın sürdüğünü göstermekte ve dezenflasyon sürecini zorlaştırmaktadır. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu ile Ticaret Bakanlığı iş birliğiyle genel ticaret sistemi kapsamında üretilen geçici dış ticaret verilerine göre; ihracat 2025 yılı Haziran ayında, bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre %7,9 artarak 20 milyar 515 milyon dolar, ithalat %15,2 artarak 28 milyar 688 milyon dolar olarak gerçekleşti. Turizm geliri Nisan, Mayıs ve Haziran aylarından oluşan II. çeyrekte bir önceki yılın aynı çeyreğine göre %8,4 artarak 16 milyar 284 milyon 322 bin dolar oldu. Ziyaretçilerden elde edilen turizm geliri 16 milyar 95 milyon 247 bin dolar, transfer yolculardan elde edilen turizm geliri ise 189 milyon 75 bin dolar oldu. Ziyaretçilerin turizm gelirinin %16,5’ini ülkemizi ziyaret eden yurt dışı ikametli vatandaşlar oluşturdu. Ziyaretçiler, seyahatlerini kişisel veya paket tur ile organize etmektedirler. Bu çeyrekte ziyaretçiler tarafından yapılan harcamaların 11 milyar 100 milyon 829 bin dolarını kişisel harcamalar, 4 milyar 994 milyon 418 bin dolarını ise paket tur harcamaları oluşturdu. Gelirlerdeki artış, sektörün güçlü seyrini sürdürdüğünü ve dış kaynaklı gelirlerde toparlanmanın devam ettiğini göstermektedir. İstanbul Sanayi Odası Türkiye İmalat PMI temmuzda üste üçüncü ay gerileyerek 45,9 düzeyinde gerçekleşti. Endeks, sektörde Ekim 2024’ten bu yana en belirgin yavaşlamanın yaşandığına işaret etti. Ayrıca temmuz ayıyla birlikte sektörün faaliyet koşullarında kesintisiz bozulma eğilimi 16’ncı aya ulaştı. Temmuz anketinin öne çıkan gelişmelerinden biri, müşteri talebindeki durgunluk oldu. İstanbul Sanayi Odası Türkiye Sektörel PMI Temmuz 2025 raporuna göre takip edilen 10 sektörün tamamında yeni siparişler ivme kaybederken, üretim ise sadece elektrikli ve elektronik ürünler sektöründe artış gösterdi. İstihdam sektörlerin büyük bir kısmında, satın alma faaliyetleri ise imalat sanayi genelinde azaldı. Girdi maliyetlerinde süren keskin artışın etkisiyle, tekstil ürünleri hariç tüm sektörlerde satış fiyatları yükselmeye devam etti. Geçen hafta TCMB Para Politikası Kurulu, toplantı özetini yayımladı. Küresel ticaret politikalarına ilişkin belirsizliğin yüksek seviyelerini koruduğu belirtilen özette, küresel büyüme görünümündeki sınırlı iyileşmenin devam ettiği aktarıldı. Özette, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret ortaklarının ihracat paylarıyla ağırlıklandırılan küresel büyüme endeksinin 2025 yılında yüzde 2, 2026 yılında ise yüzde 2,3 artacağının tahmin edildiği vurgulandı. TCMB tarafından haftalık olarak açıklanan menkul kıymet istatistiklerine göre yurt dışı yerleşikler 21 Temmuz- 25 Temmuz 2025 tarihlerinde hisse senetlerinde 205,18mn USD net alış gerçekleştirdi. Böylece yurtdışı yerleşikler son beş haftada toplam 1,075 milyar alış gerçekleştirdi. 21 Temmuz- 25 Temmuz haftasında DİBS (kesin alım) tarafında 270,96mn USD alış gerçekleşirken, ÖST tarafında 1,42mn USD alış kaydedildi. Böylelikle toplam portföyde, yurt dışı yerleşikler 21 Temmuz25 Temmuz haftasında 477,56mn USD tutarında net alış gerçekleştirmiş oldu. Yurt dışı yerleşikler 2025 yılında hisse senetlerinde 1661,88mn USD tutarında alış yaptılar. Yabancılar 2024 yılında hisse senetlerinde 2696,10mn USD net satış, 2023 yılında ise 1389mn USD net alış gerçekleştirmişlerdi. 2025 yılında DİBS tarafında 989,44mn USD satış, ÖST tarafında 501,83mn USD
    net alım gerçekleştirildi. 2025 yılbaşından bu yana yurt dışı yerleşikler tarafından toplam portföyde ise 1174,27mn USD alış kaydedilmiş oldu. 2024 yılında yurt dışı yerleşikler toplam portföyde 13724,71mn USD net alış gerçekleştirmişti. 2025 Temmuz ayında İstanbul’da perakende fiyat hareketlerinin göstergesi olan İTO İstanbul Tüketici Fiyat İndeksi aylık artışı % 2,62 olarak gerçekleşmiştir. 2024 Temmuz ayına göre 2025 Temmuz ayında İstanbul’da yaşanan fiyat değişimlerini gösteren bir önceki yılın aynı ayına göre değişim oranı İTO 2023=100 bazlı İTO İstanbul Tüketici Fiyat İndeksinde %42,48 olarak gerçekleşmiştir.

BIST100 Index
The BIST100 index closed the week at 10746.98 points after trading in the 10481-10774 range last week. Trading volume in Friday's trading reached 102 billion TL. KCHOL, DSTKF, and BIMAS contributed the most to the index, while TAVHL, AKBNK, and ALTNY were on the pressure side. The industrial index % gained 1.49, and the banking index %0.41 on a weekly basis. XBANK closed Friday's trading at 16064 points after trading in the 15696-16232 range last week. XBANK, which moved above the 5, 22, and 50-day AOs, saw some reactionary buying in the second half of the week. With the 5-day AO moving above the 22-day AO in the last week's trading, the short-term trend turned positive. We believe that the positive outlook will continue if XBANK remains above the 15900-16000 region. In the short term, the 16392 level can be monitored as the first resistance level. Closing above the 16625 target is crucial for the medium-term rise. If this target is broken, the 17000 level may be on the agenda. The BIST100 index, which traded in the 10481-10774 range last week, maintained its positive outlook by closing above the 5, 22, 50, and 200-day AOs. Closing near 10783 (TL peak) points on the last day of the week, the index needs to move above this level in the new week to strengthen its positive outlook. Above this level, the 10900-11000 resistance level could be the new target. In case of a pullback, the index's 5-day AO, 10670, can be monitored as the first support point. A break below this level could bring the 10,500 level (22-day AO) into focus. Our general view is that as long as the index gains strength above the 10,600-10,500 range, movement towards 11,000 is possible. In the medium-term outlook, the MACD indicator is trending sideways. The index closed the week at 2.64 cents in US dollars, its highest level in the last four months. We believe the 2.70-2.75 cents range is the target as long as the 200-day AO remains above 2.56 cents, with 2.60 as initial support in US dollars.

 

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