USA
ABD’nin geçen hafta ithalata yönelik %39’luk gümrük vergisi kararıyla sarsılan İsviçre hükümeti, ABD’ye daha iyi ticaret koşulları sağlamaya kararlı olduğunu söyledi. ABD Ticaret Bakanlığı, fabrika siparişlerinin Haziran ayında bir önceki aya kıyasla yüzde 4,8 azaldığını açıkladı. Fabrika siparişlerindeki bu aylık değişim, son 5 yılda görülen en sert düşüş olarak kaydedildi. Haziran ayında nakliyat dışı yeni siparişler Mayıs ayındaki yüzde 0,2’lik artışın ardından, yüzde 0,4 artış gösterdi. Dayanıklı mal siparişleri yüzde 9,3’lük düşüşün ardından Haziran ayında yüzde 9,4 geriledi. Haziran’da ise tüketim malları sevkiyatları yüzde 0,8 azaldı. Trump, pazar günü gazetecilere yaptığı açıklamada, önümüzdeki günlerde yeni bir Fed üyesi ve yeni bir istihdam istatistikçisi atayacağını açıkladı. Bu iki atama, küresel büyümenin gidişatına ilişkin endişelerin hakim olduğu bir dönemde, Trump’ın ekonomi gündemini şekillendirebilir. Trump, Adriana Kugler’in görevi bırakmasının ardından bu pozisyon için “birkaç kişi düşündüğünü” söyledi. Zayıf gelen istihdam verileri sonrası ABD Merkez Bankası’nın eylül ayındaki toplantısında faiz indirimine gideceğine dair beklentiler güç kazandı. Para piyasalarındaki fiyatlamalarda, Fed’in eylülde faiz indirimi yapma ihtimali %90’ın üzerine çıktı. San Francisco Fed Başkanı Mary Daly faiz indirimlerinin zamanının yaklaştığını söyledi. Kapanışta Dow Jones endeksi 500 puanın üzerinde değer kazanarak %1,34 artışla 44.173,64 puana ulaştı. S&P 500 endeksi %1,47 yükselerek 6.329,94 puana ve Nasdaq endeksi %1,95 kazançla 21.053,58 puana çıktı. ABD’de bugün ticaret dengesi, hizmet sektörü PMI endeksi ve ISM imalat dışı PMI rakamlarının açıklanması bekleniyor.

 

Eurozone
On the first trading day of the week, the Sentix investor confidence index was released in Europe. The Eurozone investor confidence index decreased by 8.2 points in August to 3.7. The data showed that the agreement between the US and the European Union had put pressure on the economy. German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil emphasized the weakness in negotiations and expressed dissatisfaction with this situation. Klingbeil also stated that the provisions related to energy investments and other strategic sectors within the scope of the agreement reached between the EU and the US should be clarified as soon as possible. He stated, “Trade relations cannot progress healthily without eliminating uncertainties in areas such as investments, energy collaborations, and steel,” and called for the process to be conducted transparently. In Europe, the services sector PMI and Producer Price Index will be released.

 

Türkiye
Temmuz ayında TÜFE enflasyonu %2,40 seviyesindeki medyan piyasa beklentisi ve bizim %2,25’lık tahminimizin altında %2,06 seviyesinde gerçekleşti. Temmuz 2024’teki %3,23’lük rakamın seriden çıkmasıyla da, yıllık TÜFE enflasyonu %35,0’ten %33,5’e geriledi. Böylece yıllık TÜFE enflasyonu Mayıs 2024’te gördüğü %75,5 zirvesinden itibaren her ay gerilemiş oldu. Çekirdek TÜFE enflasyonu (C grubu) ise %1,80’lik beklentimize ve %2,1’lik medyan beklentiye karşılık %1,74’lük gerçekleşmenin ardından (Temmuz 2024: %2,45) yıllık bazda %35,6’dan %34,7’ye geriledi. Yurtiçi ÜFE enflasyonu aylık %1,73 seviyesinde gerçekleşerek (Temmuz 2024: %1,94) ılımlı seyrini sürdürdü ve %24,5’ten %24,2’ye geriledi. Böylece, son 2 ayda yükselen yıllık Yİ-ÜFE enflasyonu bu ay sınırlı da olsa yeniden geriledi. Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek, “Enflasyon son 44 ayın en düşük seviyesinde.” dedi. Diğer taraftan ODMD verilerine göre temmuz ayı otomobil ve hafif ticari araç satışları geçen yılın aynı dönemine yüzde 14,55 artarak 107 bin 718 adet oldu. Bugün TÜFE bazlı reel efektif döviz kuru dışında önemli bir veri akışı bulunmuyor.

 

EUR/USD
On the first trading day of the week, the Sentix investor confidence index was released in Europe. The Eurozone investor confidence index decreased by 8.2 points in August to 3.7.
The data showed that the agreement between the US and the European Union had put pressure on the demand. Factory orders in the US decreased by %4.8% in June compared to the previous month.
The monthly change in orders was recorded as the sharpest decline in the last five years. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the time for interest rate cuts is approaching. Today, macro
The services sector PMI figures are expected to be released in the economic data stream. Below 1.1572, the support levels to watch for are 1.1526, 1.1500, and 1.1486. The 1.1572 level
Above this, 1.1596 – 1.1620 and 1.1642 are the resistance levels to be followed. As intraday technical levels;
Supports: 1.1526–1.1500–1.1486
Resistances: 1.1596 – 1.1620 – 1.1642

 

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD parity, which saw increases due to the global weakening of the dollar in the first half of the year, saw corrections in the second half of July.
In addition to the dollar's slight recovery, concerns about the UK economy are contributing to the corrections in the pair. At the same time, on Thursday, August 7, the UK
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (BoE)'s interest rate decision will be closely monitored, and a 25 basis point cut is anticipated. The GBP/USD pair will remain weak as long as it remains below 1.3325.
In this case, the 1.3220 - 1.3170 range and 1.3135 supported by the 200 EMA indicator can be monitored as support. In reaction purchases, it is expected to be above 1.3325.
The range of 1.3365 – 1.3400 will be monitored. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.3248 – 1.3200 – 1.3170
Resistances: 1.3325 – 1.3365 – 1.3400

 

XAU/USD
Cuma günü ABD’de tarım dışı istihdam verisinin beklentileri karşılamaması sonrası Fed’in eylül ayı faiz indirimine gideceğine yönelik beklentiler %90 üzerinde olasılık ile fiyatlanmaya
Friday's buying continued yesterday. Gold fluctuated between 3.345$ and 3.385$ yesterday, closing the day with buyers at 3.378$. Today's ISM non-manufacturing PMI data in the US
will be announced and Russia-Ukraine negotiations will continue to be monitored. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 3391 – 3408 – 3431
Resistances: 3350 – 3327 – 3310

 

XAG/USD
Weak US non-farm payroll data on Friday bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut, leading to a surge in precious commodities in recent days.
While increases are observed, silver prices are trading sideways this morning, around $37.30 per ounce. Technically, silver is expected to remain above $36.72.
Protection is important for the continuation of the rises. In the rises, the levels 37.70 - 38.00 can be followed as resistance. Below 36.72, a possible
In the corrections, declines towards the levels of 36.00 - 35.70 can be observed. Intraday technical levels;
Supports: 36.72 – 36.40 – 36.00
Resistances: 37.70 – 38.00 – 38.50

 

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil for October delivery fluctuated between 67.99$ and 69.96$ yesterday, closing the day around 68.65$. On the oil supply side, OPEC+ countries' daily
While oil production increased by 547 thousand barrels and Russia-Ukraine negotiations are being followed, the latest US employment data on the demand side points to weakness,
Manufacturing PMI data from China also exhibits a weak outlook. In this context, upward movements in oil prices are expected unless geopolitical risks increase.
may be suppressed. Today, the American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude oil inventories and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data will be followed. Brent crude futures will be subject to intraday
as technical levels;
Supports: 69.74 – 70.83 – 71.71
Resistances: 67.77 – 66.90 – 65.80

 

Crude Oil / WTI
On the oil supply side, OPEC+ countries increased their daily oil production by 547 thousand barrels in September and Russia-Ukraine negotiations are being followed, while the US
The threat of tariffs against countries demanding oil from Russia, especially India, is being monitored in the markets. On the oil demand side, the latest US employment
While data indicates weakness, manufacturing PMI data from China also shows a weak outlook. In this context, unless geopolitical risks increase, oil prices
Upward movements may be suppressed. Today, the American Petroleum Institute's weekly crude oil inventories and the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data will be followed.
intraday technical levels in oil futures;
Supports: 67.45 – 68.73 – 69.73
Resistances: 65.17 – 64.17 – 62.89

 

Nasdaq (Near Term)
US stock markets, where sales deepened on Friday due to weak employment data and momentary recession fears, closed with reactionary buying on the first trading day of the new week.
Friday's losses were reversed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.34, the S&P 500 by 1.47 and the Nasdaq by 1.95. Technical performance in the Nasdaq index futures contract
If the price can maintain its stability above 23,345, upward attempts may be observed. In this case, the 23,500 - 23,700 zone can be tested. Below 23,345, the 23,000 - 22,400 zone is support.
can be followed as intraday technical levels;
Supports: 23,000 – 22,644 – 22,460
Resistances: 23,530 – 23,700 – 24,050

 

Dow Jones (Near Term)
We are closely monitoring the 44,000 level for the Dow Jones index in the short term. Maintaining stability above 44,000 is a sign of continued upward movement.
It is important for the price. A drop below 44,000 could lead to a sell-off trend. At this point, the 43,800 level appears as the first strong support point.
Intraday technical levels will be monitored:
Supports: 44,000 – 43,800- 43,380
Resistances: 44,640 – 44,880 – 45,300

 

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