What Happened?

• CBRT Governor Karahan: We must keep monetary policy tight for a long time.

• Karahan: Gold demand is related to high inflation, the gold factor weakens the fight against inflation.

• US President Trump said that countries with good relations with Hamas are useful in ceasefire talks

• Citi, Eylül ayı enflasyon verisi sonrasında yılsonunda Türkiye’de enflasyonun %30 olmasını, politika faizinin ise %37’ye inmesini bekliyor.

• Detention warrants were issued for 23 people in the investigation against Istanbul Gold Refinery Inc.

• Bloomberg News reported that Stellantis plans to invest approximately $10 billion in the US.

• White House: Mass layoffs will begin if shutdown talks go nowhere.

• The EU did not include a digital services tax in its latest proposal for a revenue-raising plan. Instead, the European Commission is proposing a new company tax, a tobacco excise duty, and an e-waste tax.

• OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November.

EURUSD
The pair started the first trading day of the week on a negative note. The pair started the new trading day at 1.171, and a recovery attempt was observed in the following trading hours. In the middle of last month, the pair tested its recent high of 1.192, and with a pullback that started from those levels, it retreated to 1.164. Continuing to search for direction at recent peaks, the pair continues to fluctuate in light of the economic data flow and incoming news flows. Looking at the economic calendar, the pair has a weak day, with ECB President Lagarde expected to deliver a speech at 20:00 Turkish time. On the other hand, when looked at the weekly economic calendar, the data sets to be released from the US will be at the forefront in terms of determination. Economic data flow and global risks will continue to be closely monitored. Technically; The levels 1.1736 – 1.1776 – 1.1822 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 1.1681 – 1.1632 – 1.1578 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 1.1736
Resistance 2– 1.1776
Resistance 3– 1.1822

Support 1– 1.1681
Support 2– 1.1632
Support 3– 1.1578

OIL
Oil started the new week on a positive note. Opening at around $1, oil began the new trading day with a gain of over 1 percent. Crude, which opened at 61.14, continued its upward trend in the following trading hours, testing $61.83. Oil, which has struggled to find direction since August, continues to maintain its volatile outlook. News flows related to the Russia-Ukraine war continue to influence oil prices, while the war
The upcoming steps regarding crude oil continue to cause supply concerns. The most important data set for the week for oil, which had a weak day in terms of the economic calendar, is the Crude Oil Inventories data, to be released on Thursday. Economic data flow and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on oil, which finished the first week of October on a selling trend. Supply concerns, the Russia-Ukraine war, and economic data flow will be closely monitored. From a technical perspective, the 61.89, 62.98, and 63.98 levels can be monitored as resistance levels, while the 60.28, 58.90, and 57.70 levels can be monitored as support levels.

Resistance 1–61.89
Resistance 2–62.98
Resistance 3–63.98

Support 1–60.28
Support 2–58.90
Support 3- 57.70

Gold
Gold began the first trading day of the new week by breaking records. Safe-haven gold, which opened the new trading day at $3,887, rose by approximately $40 in the following trading hours. While the Fed's interest rate cut agenda remains a key catalyst for gold, which has long been a hot topic of discussion, another key agenda item was the US budget impasse. As the US entered the new fiscal year, the interim budget proposal was not approved, and the federal government shut down. The ongoing uncertainty in global markets, coupled with the string of uncertainties within the US, pushed gold prices higher. Donald Trump, the second US President, faced a nearly 35-day lockdown during his first term in office. Economic data flow and geopolitical risks will continue to be closely monitored. Technically, the 3,950 level can be monitored as resistance, while the 3,900, 3,870, and 3,840 levels can be monitored as support. Gold began the first trading day of the new week by breaking records. Safe-haven gold, which opened the new trading day at $3,887, rose by approximately $40 in the following trading hours. While the Fed's interest rate cut agenda remains a key catalyst for safe-haven gold, which has been a hot topic for a long time, another key agenda item has been the US budget impasse. As the US enters the new fiscal year, the interim budget bill was not approved, and the federal government shut down. The ongoing uncertainty in global markets, coupled with the string of uncertainties within the US, has pushed gold prices higher. Donald Trump, the second US President, also faced a roughly 35-day lockdown during his first term in office. Economic data flow and geopolitical risks will continue to be closely monitored. Technically, the 3,950 level can be monitored as a resistance level, while the 3,900, 3,870, and 3,840 levels can be monitored as support levels.

Resistance 1– 3950

Support 1–3900
Support 2–3870
Support 3–3840

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