Türkiye
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance has secured approximately €1.55 billion in external financing for the Dörtyol-Hassa Highway and Railway Project in Southeastern Anatolia. Following the Cabinet Meeting at the Presidential Complex, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that they have revised the definition of SMEs, heeding the private sector. Erdoğan emphasized that inflation has fallen for 14 months and that tourism revenues have also reached a record high. The World Bank has approved $650 million in financing to strengthen Istanbul's resilience to disasters.
USA
US President Donald Trump emphasized that he believes his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15th will be “very constructive,” but that he does not currently know the outcome. At a press conference at the White House, President Trump announced a series of new measures aimed at improving security in Washington, D.C., reducing crime, and ridding the city of homelessness. President Trump announced that there will be no tariffs on gold imports. A White House official said President Donald Trump signed an executive order that will prevent the high US tariffs on Chinese goods from taking effect for another 90 days. Trump has nominated economist EJ Antoni to be commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Europe
Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, has exited its investments in 11 Israeli companies and decided to terminate its contracts with all external portfolio managers in Israel.
Asia
Russia will eliminate customs duties on wheat, barley, and corn exports starting August 13. These new rates will be valid until August 19, according to calculations by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture.
Ounce of gold is weak after the tariff ceasefire news!
Gold prices started the week on a negative note with the announcement that US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet in Alaska, USA, on August 15th. Having closed last week at $3,398, the ounce lost $55 on the first trading day of the week, closing at $3,343. However, we are seeing a rather limited rebound in the yellow metal today. US President Donald Trump signed a decree extending the tariff truce with China. Following Washington's announcement, China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that it has extended the tariff truce with the US for another 90 days. As of May 14th, the US had agreed to reduce its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days, while China had also agreed to reduce its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. This decree extended the suspension of tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10th. The tariff ceasefire and optimistic expectations for Friday's Trump-Putin meeting are likely causing a weak risk appetite for gold this week. US July inflation data, to be released today at 3:30 PM Turkish time (GMT+3), will be crucial for gold's price action. Market expectations are for a 0.2% monthly CPI increase and a 2.8% annual increase. Inflation data that is in line with or better than expected could support interest rate cut expectations for the Fed's September meeting, potentially generating upward price action for gold.
Technical Analysis: Gold, which started the week on a downward note, has seen very limited reaction from near $3,340. On the upside, the 22-day moving average, $3,354, acts as immediate resistance. For the rally to gain traction, a breakout and a sustained hold above this resistance level are needed. On the downside, if daily closes below $3,340 are achieved, a pullback to $3,300 could continue.
Supports: 3340 / 3300 / 3268
Resistors: 3354 / 3388 / 3400
Reaction purchases continue in oil!
Following a weak outlook, the oil market has been trading positively for the past two trading days. The US and China have extended their planned tariff hikes. This decision could be interpreted as a positive development for the Chinese economy. This development eased concerns that the trade war between the two countries would escalate, negatively impacting their economies and reducing fuel demand in the world's two largest oil consumers. US President Donald Trump has extended the "tariff truce" with China for another 90 days, a White House official said on Monday. This move prevented triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods as US retailers prepare for the year-end holiday season. The tariffs risk slowing economic growth, which could weaken global fuel demand and push down oil prices. All eyes this week will be on Friday's talks between the US and Russia.
- Brent Technical Analysis: Brent Crude oil has managed to hold on to the 66.00 support level. The upward trend continues.
In case of a pullback, the 68.00 level can be followed as resistance. In case of a pullback, the 66.00 level can appear as support.
will continue.
Supports: 66.00 / 65.50 / 64.20
Resistances: 67.30 / 68.00 / 68.80
- WTI Technical analysis: Following the reactionary buying in Crude Oil, the 63.90 level was breached again. Upward
If the volatility continues, the 65.25 level can be followed as resistance. In case of a possible pullback, the 63.00 level can be followed.
level will continue to appear as support.
Supports: 63.90 / 62.60 / 61.40
Resistances: 64.70 / 65.25 / 66.20
A horizontal trend prevails in the EURUSD parity!
The EUR/USD pair remains weak. Trump's actions continue to be the determining factor behind the currency pair's movements. The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska on August 15th could cause volatility in the dollar index. Trump emphasized that he believes the meeting will be "very constructive" but that he doesn't currently know the outcome. Ahead of this meeting, the leaders of Europe and Ukraine will hold an online meeting with Trump and his vice president, Vance, at 3:00 PM on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Trump's tariff-related actions are indirectly impacting the currency pair by reducing market uncertainty. By signing an executive order that prevents the high US tariffs on Chinese goods from taking effect for another 90 days, he prevented the US tariffs on China from returning to the level seen in April, at the height of the tariff war between the world's largest trading nations. This move eased trade tensions in global markets. Similarly, Trump's statement that "no tariffs will be imposed on gold" has eliminated uncertainty in gold trading, which may somewhat diminish the dollar's appeal as a safe haven by increasing risk appetite. On the monetary policy front, Bank of America (BoA) warned against the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) tendency to cut interest rates at its September meeting. The bank stated that recent economic data did not justify a premature easing move. Today's US CPI data will be a key factor in determining the currency pair's short-term trajectory.
Technical Analysis: EURUSD pair remains stable above 1.1575. 1.1575 in case of possible pullbacks
The level can be continued to be monitored. The current level is 1.1615, which is the 22 and 50-day moving average.
critical. If it succeeds in holding above this level, the upward trend will accelerate towards 1.1755.
We wait.
Supports: 1.1575 / 1.1525 / 1.1455
Resistances: 1.1675 / 1.1755 / 1.1790
Dollar TL is calm before the US data!
The USD/TRY pair is maintaining a horizontal upward trend. Price volatility may occur in the pair depending on the results of the US inflation data to be released today. Market expectations for the CPI are for a 0.2 percent monthly increase and a 2.8 percent annual increase. Figures that exceed expectations could help the dollar appreciate globally and strengthen the USD/TRY's upward movement. Conversely, data that falls short of expectations could see a limited pullback in the short term. While I believe Trump will be "very constructive" regarding Friday's Trump-Putin meeting, his emphasizing that he currently doesn't know the outcome suggests to investors that there is still uncertainty in the market. This could lead to a very limited rise in the USD/TRY pair. The pair is trading quietly around 40.70 today, with no significant domestic macro data to monitor today. Therefore, we expect intraday fluctuations in the pair to be driven primarily by US data, while the overall trend remains a horizontally upward trend.
Technical Analysis: The 40.78 level is the immediate resistance level for the USD/TRY pair. If hourly closes above this resistance level, the pair could continue its upward trend toward the 40.95 resistance level. We expect any corrections to be limited to the 40.28 level.
Supports: 40.46 / 40.28 / 40.00
Resistances: 40.78 / 40.95 / 41.03
EURTRY Technical Levels
Supports: 46.97 / 46.85 / 46.70
Resistances: 47.70 / 47.90 / 48.23
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