• US State Department: Trump sees the meeting with Putin as an information-gathering exercise.
• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said regarding the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin on August 15, “It is impossible to talk about Ukraine without Ukraine, and no one will accept it.”
• France, Germany and the UK issued a strong warning to Iran, signaling they are ready to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions if Tehran does not restart nuclear talks.
• Goldman Sachs: US CPI data supports the Fed's expectation of a September insurance rate cut.
• BlackRock: Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
EURUSD
Following the release of the US CPI data yesterday at 3:30 PM Turkish Time (GMT+3), the currency pair experienced a sharp upward price move, rising nearly 1 percent immediately afterward to test 1.169. The fact that the US datasets, excluding core inflation, were in line with expectations, increased expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. While the dollar depreciated, the currency pair experienced a positive price move. The currency pair, which generally continues to fluctuate above 1.160, will be closely watched today by the German CPI data. The monthly Consumer Price Index expectation is 0.3 percent, while the annual expectation is 2 percent, the European target. Increasing expectations of a US interest rate cut in September are making the euro more valuable, while the euro's increased value in Europe could become a factor that could negatively impact growth. The ECB's statements on this matter in the coming days could be crucial in this regard. When we examine the EURUSD parity technically, the levels 1.1721 – 1.1783 – 1.1836 can be followed as resistance points; and the levels 1.1634 – 1.1590 – 1.1530 can be followed as support points.
Resistance 1– 1.1721
Resistance 2– 1.1783
Resistance 3– 1.1836
Support 1– 1.1634
Support 2– 1.1590
Support 3– 1.1530
OIL
The mixed outlook for oil continues. Oil started the new day on a calm note, and all eyes are now on the Crude Oil Inventories to be released by the Energy Information Administration at 17:00 Turkish time today. In addition, in yesterday's OPEC oil report, the demand forecast for 2025 remained unchanged, while the 2026 demand expectation was revised upwards by approximately 100,000 barrels. Generally, China's lower oil demand compared to previous years had caused selling pressure on the oil front. On the other hand, the gradual removal of uncertainties regarding additional tariffs continues to limit the increases in the oil front. Again, the outcome of the Russia-US talks in the days when we will be closely watching could cause volatility on the oil front. The expectation that Russia, which previously faced various oil and natural gas embargoes, will ease these embargoes could cause selling pressure on the oil front. Technically, the following; The levels 64.29 – 65.52 – 66.72 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 62.18 – 60.88 – 59.92 can be followed as support points.
Resistance 1–64.29
Resistance 2–65.52
Resistance 3–66.72
Support 1–62.18
Support 2–60.88
Support 3- 59.92
Gold
The sideways trend in gold continues. Having started the new trading day at 3349 levels, gold retreated to $3342 in the following trading hours, but then rose to its initial levels with a moderate recovery. Yesterday, in the highly anticipated US inflation data, headline inflation was announced as 2.7 percent, below expectations by 0.1 percent. This situation strengthened the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. On the other hand, the Core Consumer Price Index, calculated by excluding food and energy costs, exceeded expectations at 3.1 percent on an annual basis. Another problem for the US, which is generally far from the 2 percent inflation target, is that high interest rates constrain growth. For this reason, the expectation that the interest rate decision in September will be in the direction of a cut has risen to 90 percent. While safe-haven gold has recently continued its movement in a narrow range, geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data flow and tariffs continue to influence gold prices. Technically; The levels 3365 – 3385 – 3404 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 3340 – 3325 – 3308 can be followed as support points.
Resistance 1– 3365
Resistance 2– 3385
Resistance 3 – 3404
Support 1–3340
Support 2–3325
Support 3–3308
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