USA

ABD vadeli endeksleri haftaya güçlü bir yükselişle başladı. S&P 500 vadeli kontratları %1,3, Nasdaq 100 %1,8 artış kaydederken, Dow Jones vadeli endeksleri de yaklaşık %1 yükseldi. Başkan Donald Trump’ın Çin’le anlaşmaya açık olduğunu ifade eden açıklamaları, geçen haftaki sert satışların ardından risk iştahının yeniden toparlanmasını sağladı. Piyasalar, Washington yönetiminin söylem tonunu yumuşatarak gerginliği azaltmaya çalıştığı mesajını pozitif fiyatladı. Geçtiğimiz hafta Çin’in, nadir element içeren ürünlerin ihracatına yönelik kapsamlı kısıtlamalar getirmesinin ardından Trump yönetimi, buna misilleme olarak %100 oranında ek gümrük vergisi tehdidinde bulunmuş ve iki ülke liderleri arasında planlanan görüşmeyi iptal etme olasılığını gündeme getirmişti. Ancak hafta sonu yapılan son açıklamalarda Trump, Çin’e karşı “tam bir ticaret savaşının” her iki taraf için de zararlı olacağını belirterek, olası bir uzlaşma için kapının açık olduğuna işaret etti. Bu söylem değişikliği, yatırımcılar tarafından ticaret geriliminin kısa vadede yumuşayabileceği yönünde yorumlandı. Tahvil piyasalarında, yatırımcıların yeniden riskli varlıklara yönelmesiyle ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratları gerilerken, 10 yıllık ABD tahvil getirisi %4,29 seviyesine yükseldi. Buna karşın, altın fiyatı güvenli liman talebinin sürmesiyle %1,5 artışla 4.077 $/ons seviyesine çıkarak tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesini gördü. Gümüş ise Londra piyasasında yaşanan tarihi bir kısa pozisyon sıkışması (short squeeze) sonucu son on yılların en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. Makro cephede, yatırımcılar son dönemdeki rallinin sürdürülebilirliği konusunda temkinli kalmayı sürdürüyor. S&P 500 endeksi, nisan ayındaki gümrük vergisi krizinden bu yana yapay zekâ (AI) hisselerine yönelik güçlü talep ve Fed’in faiz indirimi beklentileriyle hızlı bir yükseliş sergiledi. Endeks şu anda son 25 yılın en yüksek değerleme seviyelerine yaklaşmış durumda; bu durum, olası olumsuz haber akışına karşı piyasanın kırılganlığını artırıyor. Genel görünüm itibarıyla ABD piyasaları, haftaya risk iştahının yeniden canlandığı, güvenli liman varlıklarının gerilediği bir tabloyla başlıyor. Yatırımcıların odağında bu hafta, ABD-Çin ticaret görüşmelerine dair diplomatik sinyaller ve Fed yetkililerinin faiz patikasına ilişkin açıklamaları bulunuyor.

Eurozone

European indices are poised for a positive start to the week. Euro Stoxx 50 futures % pointed to a 0.4% increase to open, while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 futures also saw modest gains. The tone regarding trade tensions in the US
The softening of the price action has also supported risk appetite in Europe. The Trump administration's signaling of a potential compromise on tariffs against China has reduced global uncertainties and strengthened the focus on European assets. The political agenda is back on the agenda in France. President Emmanuel Macron announced his new cabinet amid increasing domestic political pressure ahead of the budget process.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu took office with a program focused on economic reforms and budget discipline. However, analysts warn that the government's limited parliamentary majority may hinder the budget's passage. This has led to slight selling pressure on French bonds, with the yield on the 10-year French bond rising above %3. The euro/dollar exchange rate is 1.1619.
remained flat at the level, while the pound/dollar rate settled around 1.3355. Expectations of a softening in US-China relations pushed the dollar index
(DXY) weakened slightly, while investor interest in riskier assets supported European currencies. Across the region, a slight recovery in energy prices supported energy stocks, while declining demand for safe havens like gold and bonds generated short-term upward momentum in risky assets. However, European markets remain plagued by high interest rates, weak domestic demand, and sluggish production indicators.

EUR/USD

The pair began the first trading day of the week on a mixed note. Having opened the new trading day at 1.161, the pair continued its mixed trend throughout the trading hours. Political instability continues to linger in France, following Greece's example within the European Union. In previous meeting minutes, the European Central Bank maintained its position of being in a good position while indicating its intention to maintain a wait-and-see strategy. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored.
Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.1558 – 1.1477 – 1.1405
Resistances: 1.1648 – 1.1727 – 1.1784

XAU/USD

Gold began the first trading day of the week testing a historic high. Safe haven gold, which opened the new trading day at $4,012, continued its upward movement in the following trading hours, reaching new all-time highs. Gold, which has seen its month-to-date gains exceed 5%, initially experienced a sharp decline following Fed Chair Powell's statement. Afterward, gold resumed its upward trend, reaching a new all-time high today. Fed Chair Powell
He had signaled that the interest rate cut scenario would not play out as expected and that there were dual risks related to inflation and the labor market. Another important agenda item was the US-China tariffs. US President Donald Trump announced that he would impose 100% additional tariffs on China, effective November 1st. Less than 24 hours after this announcement, he backtracked somewhat on his harsh statements. The additional tariffs and economic data flow will be closely monitored.
Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 4055 – 4030 – 4000
Resistances: 4080 – 4100

Brent Crude Oil
Oil began the first trading day of the new week on a positive note. Crude, which opened at $59.12, rose to $60.00 in the following trading hours. Oil, which generally remained within a narrow range, experienced a significant loss of value near the close of the previous trading day. The announcements over the weekend, along with the tensions between the US and China,
The tariff wars have gained new momentum. US President Donald Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on China. He then stated that relations with China would be good and that he would meet with Chinese President Xi. He had previously stated that such a meeting would be impossible. The meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi will be closely monitored.
Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 61.39 – 62.88 – 64.08
Resistances: 59.00 – 57.70 – 56.36

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