US President Trump and Russian President Putin are expected to meet today. As Trump continues to pressure Russia to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome of their meeting will be highly critical. Trump is reiterating his threat to impose very strong sanctions if Russia doesn't agree. This meeting will dominate today's agenda, and its outcome could also determine price action. Today's data calendar includes data releases from the US and Türkiye.

You can follow daily data in the Economic calendar section.

Dollar/TL
TCMB yılın 3. Enflasyon Raporu’nda enflasyon tahminini, 2025 yıl sonu için orta noktası %27 olmak üzere %25-29 aralığına revize ederken, 2026 yıl sonu için ise orta noktası %16 olmak üzere %13-19 aralığına revize etti. TCMB brüt rezervleri geçen hafta 169 milyar dolardan 174,4 milyar dolara yükselirken, net rezervler ise 63,2 milyar dolardan 67,6 milyar dolara yükseldi. Kur korumalı mevduat toplamı geçen hafta 19,06 milyar TL düşüşle 458,5 milyar TL’ye geriledi. ABD’de ÜFE temmuzda aylık %0,9 ve yıllık %3,3 ile beklentilerin bir hayli üzerinde geldi. Verinin kur üzerinde etkisi olmazken, dolar endeksi sınırlı artış kaydetti. Bugün içerde bütçe dengesi ve TCMB Piyasa Katılımcıları Anketi, ABD’de ise perakende satışlar ve sanayi üretimi izlenecek. Dolar/TL, bu sabah saat 08:00 itibariyle 40,86 civarında seyrediyor.

Euro/Dollar
Eurozone industrial production decreased by 1.3% month-on-month in June but increased by 0.2% year-on-year. The eurozone economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year in the second quarter. Uncertainty surrounding US trade measures has led to increased caution among businesses and households. US PPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July and by 3.3% year-on-year, its fastest increase in three years, driven by rising service costs. The data, which suggests that rising producer prices could trigger a broader rise in inflation in the coming months, confirmed Powell's cautious approach. For the pair, 1.1700 – 1.1734 and 1.1770 are the resistance levels, while 1.1635 – 1.1600 and 1.1580 are the supports to be watched.

XAU/USD
In the US, PPI data increased by 3.3% in the annual headline and 3.7% in the core index. On the monthly front, both the headline and the core index increased by 0.9, well above expectations. While the data did not change expectations for a quarter basis point interest rate cut from the Fed for September, there was a limited increase in the dollar index and limited losses in value of the ounce of gold. The Trump-Putin meeting will take place in Alaska today. Precious metals will be closely watched in terms of geopolitical developments. On the other hand, retail sales and industrial production data will be closely watched in the US. The ounce of gold is moving around 3.345$ as of 08:00 this morning, and in the technical view, support levels are 3.330$ – 3.315$ – 3.270$ and 3.245$; 3.370$ – 3.408$ and 3.438$ levels can be followed as resistance.

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude, which saw upward trends yesterday, will focus on today's Trump-Putin meeting. In light of geopolitical developments, oil supply and demand will be re-monitored depending on the results. At this stage, the 90-day extension of the tariff truce between the US and China is a positive development on the oil demand side. Although yesterday's PPI figures, which came well above expectations in the US, did not ease the Fed's hand in the fight against inflation, the market is pricing in a quarter-point interest rate cut for September. Retail sales and industrial production data in the US will be watched today. Brent crude is trading around 66.23$ as of 08:00 this morning, and in the technical view, resistance levels are 66.53$, 66.91$, 67.42$, 68.10$ and 68.91$; 65.81$ – 65.25$ – 64.74$ – 64.10$ and 63.50$ levels can be followed as support.

Interest rates
10 yıllık uzun vadeli hazine tahvil faizi 9 baz puan düşüşle yüzde 31,37’ye, 2 yıllık kısa vadeli hazine tahvil faizi 17 baz puan düşüşle 40,15 seviyesine gerileyerek günü tamamladılar. Abd hazine tahvillerinde 2 yıllıkta faiz %3,72, 5 yıllıkta faiz %3,80 ve 10 yıllıkta ise %4,27 seviyelerinde seyrediyor. TCMB, 2025 yıl sonu için enflasyon tahmininin %25-%29 aralığında, 2026 sonu için ise %13-%19 aralığında olduğunu belirtti. TCMB Başkanı Karahan’ın açıklamasına göre bundan böyle, yıl sonu odaklı ara hedefler belirlenecek ve olağanüstü bir gelişme olmadığı  sürece bu hedefler değiştirilmeden korunacak. TCMB Piyasa Katılımcıları Anketi bugün yayımlanacak. Yurt içinde bugün Bütçe Dengesi açıklanacak. ABD’de bugün Perakende Satışlar ve Sanayi Üretim Endeksi açıklanacak.

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