What Happened?

• IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast for Türkiye from %3 to %3.5.

• IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from %3.3 to %3.7.

• In the October issue of the IMF World Economic Outlook Report, it was stated that trade policy uncertainty remains high due to the lack of clear, transparent and lasting agreements among trading partners.

• IMF: The impact of higher US tariffs on growth has not been fully measured.

• Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Uraloğlu: We provided the 5G infrastructure with the installation at 19 different points along the 40-kilometer route.

• US President Trump: We have a fair relationship with China and I think it will be good.

• Fed Chair Powell: The Fed may end its balance sheet reduction process in the coming months.

• Powell: Rate cuts will be evaluated on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

• ABD Ticaret Temsilcisi Greer, Çin’in ihracatına yönelik ek %100’lük tarifelerin 1 Kasım’da veya daha erken devreye girip girmeyeceğinin Çin’e bağlı olduğunu söyledi.

• Bank balance sheets in the US exceeded expectations.

EURUSD
The pair began the new trading day on a slightly positive note. Starting the week on a positive note, the pair opened at 1.161 and tested 1.163 in the following trading hours. Last day, Germany, one of Europe's major economies, released its Consumer Price Index data at 09:00 GMT. The dataset was in line with expectations, showing a 0.2 percent increase. The European Central Bank, which had previously stated in minutes and meetings that it was comfortable with 2 percent inflation and had not explicitly stated its interest rate cut agenda in the future, continued to adopt a wait-and-see approach. For Europe, which has long managed to keep inflation at a 100 percent level, the impact of the additional tariffs imposed by the US appears to have been unchanged, at least for now. Meanwhile, the question of whether the euro's appreciation against the euro would challenge Europe in global trade is beginning to fade. While the European Central Bank's lack of monetary policy change hasn't caused any volatility in the currency pair, data flows from the US appear likely to continue to cause volatility. Technically, resistance levels at 1.1647, 1.1729, and 1.1780 can be monitored, while support levels at 1.1596, 1.1544, and 1.1461 can be monitored.

Resistance 1– 1.1647
Resistance 2– 1.1729
Resistance 3– 1.1780

Support 1– 1.1596
Support 2– 1.1544
Support 3– 1.1461

OIL
Oil began the day with mixed activity mid-week. Crude, which opened the new trading day at 58.60, continued its mixed performance in later trading hours. Oil remains among this year's overall losers. It has declined amid general factors such as recession risks in global markets and OPEC+ supply cuts. Oil, which occasionally experiences sharp price increases due to geopolitical risks, has lost over 20% of its value since the beginning of the year. Crude's current price levels are the lowest in five months. Supply cuts, additional sanctions against Russia, and additional tariffs that will impact global trade will continue to be closely monitored. Technically, resistance levels for crude oil are 60.00, 61.64, and 63.00, while support levels are 57.67, 55.52, and 53.36.

Resistance 1–60.00
Resistance 2–61.64
Resistance 3–63.00

Support 1–57.67
Support 2–55.52
Support 3- 53.36

Gold
Gold started the new trading day by breaking new records. The safe haven gold, which has long been notable for its rise, broke new records. As we approached the middle of the week, gold started the new day at around $ 4,140. In the following trading hours, it continued to price at historical record levels. Fed Chair Powell, who made various statements during the last trading day, stated that the US made large amounts of asset purchases from the market during the pandemic period and provided $ 200 billion in loans that were necessary under the current conditions. He then reduced asset purchases with the experiencing inflation and stated that they have not made asset purchases since March 2022. He stated that they will generally stop shrinking the balance sheet as soon as they increase reserves above their desired level. As he stated in the previous meeting, he stated that there are downside risks in the labor market. He underlined that he does not want to act hastily in the interest rate cut process in general, and said that the two-way risk still persists and that if we act quickly, we will abandon the fight against inflation. The employment data to be released in the upcoming period is of serious importance in this respect. Technically; The levels 4200 and 4220 can be followed as psychological resistance points, while the levels 4170 – 4140 – 4110 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 4200
Resistance 2 – 4220

Support 1–4170
Support 2–4140
Support 3–4110

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