EURUSD

The 1.1648-1.1678 range, representing the 120-period moving average and the pressure that began at levels around 1.18, has transformed into a trend, and while the pair may wish to continue its negative outlook below this range, a decline to the 1.1440 bottom is on the table, while 1.1580 could serve as intermediate support in the short term to determine whether the pressure will continue. It's important to remember that in the event of a recovery, sustained movement above the 1.1648-1.1678 range is needed to invalidate the current scenario and return the pair to the positive trend it has ended.

Important Level(s) of the Day: 1.1678 and 1.1580

 

GBPUSD

 

The 144-period moving average and the Envelope indicator maintain their negative outlook below the 1.3550-1.3555 range, and while they have retreated to the 1.3385 low we used as our baseline, they have not yet broken through. While a partial reaction is being observed with the slowdown, as no relevant breakout has occurred regarding the strength of the negative movement, the 1.3550-1.3555 range, where the indicators are located, remains strong, supporting the notion of a negative outlook. It's important to remember that sustained movement below 1.3385 is needed for potential pressure to deepen at this stage, but a period of horizontal recession between 1.3385 and 1.3555 should not be surprising given the relatively calm data calendar.

Important Level(s) of the Day: 1.3555 and 1.3385

 

USDTRY

Looking at the daily performance of the EMEA basket of 23 emerging market currencies against the US Dollar, the strongest currency was the Peruvian Sol, up 0.67%, while the weakest was the Russian Ruble, down 0.51%. The Turkish Lira is in the weaker zone of the list, down 0.08%, while the USD/TRY is currently trading near 40.33 at the time of writing.

In our short-term analysis of the USD/TRY exchange rate, the 144-period moving average (39.86) is the main support level, and the Envelope indicator's lower point (40.07) is the intermediate support level. However, the exchange rate may attempt to maintain its positive outlook above the reference areas. With this in mind, a movement towards the Envelope indicator's upper point (40.50) can be observed. A sustained trend above 40.28, in particular, could strengthen short-term optimism. Otherwise, the reactionary selling trend could be pushed towards the intermediate support level. It should be noted that if pressure increases, i.e., we see a reaction below the intermediate support point, the positive trend above the 144-period moving average is likely to continue unless there is sharp news regarding the strengthening of the Turkish Lira.

Important Level(s) of the Day: 40.07 and 40.28

OUNCE GOLD – XAUUSD

Strong economic data in the US (higher retail sales and lower unemployment claims), Increased the possibility of the Fed postponing its rate cutAlthough Fed members offer different opinions, uncertainty persists. On the other hand, Trump's plan to increase tariffs, geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) together with gold continues to support safe asset demand. FOMC member Waller's speech can be followed throughout the day.

From a technical perspective, the ounce of gold continues its upward trend, which began at 3247, and is priced above the area supported by the indicators we monitor in the medium term (20, 50, and 100-period exponential moving averages). As the ounce of gold moves above the current level of 3319, Our positive expectation is at the forefront. If the upward trend continues, the 3344 and 3360 levels could come into play. Our support level of 3319 should be closely monitored in case of pressure that could invalidate our scenario.

In the event of a potential pullback, a hold below 3319 may be necessary for negative expectations to emerge. In the event of a potential decline, the 3300 and 3283 levels can be monitored.

OUNCE SILVER – XAGUSD

Recovering as dollar and bond yields fall over $38 per ounce rose. Before, US inflation data And Fed rate cut expectations weaken was under pressure because of. On the other handTrump's new tariff plans This escalated trade tensions (especially in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) and impacted the market. This was another factor supporting silver, a safe-haven asset. FOMC member Waller's speech can be followed throughout the day.

From a technical perspective, the ounce of silver continues its upward trend, which began at 32.73, and is priced above the area supported by the indicators we monitor in the medium term (20, 50, and 100-period exponential moving averages). As the ounce of silver moves above the current level of 37.43, Our positive expectation is at the forefront. If the upward trend continues, the 38.45 and 38.77 levels could be on the agenda. Our support level of 37.43 should be closely monitored in case of pressure that could invalidate our scenario.

In the event of a potential pullback, a hold below 37.43 may be necessary for the price to emerge as a negative indicator. In the event of a potential decline, the 37.17 and 36.85 levels could be monitored.

Today's Important Level: 37.43

WTI

Oil futures had rebounded midweek following reports of declining US inventories, followed by Thursday's news that drone strikes in Iraq were impacting production. The limited pullback in the Asian session did not alter the short-term bullish outlook. The course of European and US stock markets can be monitored throughout the day.

During this period, as long as prices remain at and above the 65.50-66.00 support level, an upward trend may be at the forefront. Any upward movement could target the 66.50 and 67.00 levels.

In the event of a potential decline, as long as the 65.50-66.00 support level remains in place, new upward potential may emerge. Therefore, for the downward trend to continue, a break below 65.50 and hourly closes may be necessary. In this case, the 65.00 and 64.50 levels could be on the agenda.

Important Level of the Day: 65.50 – 66.00

BRENT

Oil futures had rebounded midweek following reports of declining US inventories, followed by Thursday's news that drone strikes in Iraq were impacting production. The limited pullback in the Asian session did not alter the short-term bullish outlook. The course of European and US stock markets can be monitored throughout the day.

As long as prices remain above the 69.00-69.35 support level, an upward trend may be at the forefront. Any upward movement could target the 70.00 and 70.50 levels.

In the event of a potential decline, as long as the 69.00-69.35 support level remains in place, new upward potential may emerge. Therefore, for the downward trend to continue, it may be necessary to see a price move below 69.00 and hourly closes. In this case, the 68.50 and 68.00 levels could be on the agenda.

Important Level of the Day: 69.00 – 69.35

NGAS – NATURAL GAS 

US natural gas futures trended lower following increased demand due to warm weather and subsequent stockpiling. However, due to the previous trading marathon, this decline was within the correction range. The course of European and US stock markets can be monitored throughout the day.

In this process, pricing and hourly closings outside the 3,510 – 3,550 region may clarify the search for direction.

The upward trend could come to the fore with price action and hourly closes above 3,550. In this case, the 3,590 and 3,630 levels could be targeted.

In the event of a potential decline, the 3,510 support level could be monitored. A break below this support level and possible hourly closes in the region could bring the 3,480 and 3,440 levels into the spotlight.

Today's Important Level: 3,510 – 3,550

NAS100 – NASDAQ

Haftanın son işlem gününde, NASDAQ100 Endeksi güçlü perakende satışlar verilerinin TSM’in beklenti üzerindeki bilanço sonuçlarıyla yükselişlerini sürdürdü. TSM’in finansal sonuçları, yapay zeka trendindeki güçlü seyrin devam ettiğini gösterdi. Diğer yandan, Trump 20’den fazla ticaret ortağına %20 – %40 arasında yeni gümrük vergilerini içeren mektuplar gönderdi. Gün içerisinde Michigan tüketici hissiyatı takip edilebilir.

The NASDAQ100 index is trading above the indicators we track on the 4-hour chart. As long as momentum remains above the 23100 level, supported by the lower trendline, the index will continue to trade higher. rise An area may form for expectations. In this area, prices may move towards the 23300 and 23450 resistance levels.

For the alternative scenario, which is the negative outlook, to become dominant, it may be necessary to see persistence below the 23100 level we are monitoring. In this case, the 22985 and 22870 levels could be encountered.

Today's Important Level: 23100

GER30 – DAX

Dax40 index, US-EU trade deal hopes And optimism in corporate earnings supported. Especially TSMC, Siemens, Infineon and SAP While large companies such as automotive and pharmaceutical sectors also showed a strong performance. German PPI data can be followed throughout the day.

From a technical perspective, the Dax40 continues its uptrend, which began at 23194, and is priced above the area supported by the indicators we follow in the medium term (20, 50, and 100-period exponential moving averages). As the Dax40 moves above the current level of 24302, Our positive expectation is at the forefront. If the upward trend continues, the 24753 and 25122 levels could come into play. Our support level of 24302 should be closely monitored in case of pressure that could invalidate our scenario.

In the event of a potential pullback, a hold below 24302 may be necessary for negative expectations to emerge. In the event of a potential decline, the 24076 and 23881 levels can be monitored.

Today's Important Level: 24302

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