US Markets

US index futures were flat for the second trading day of the week, as investors looked to profit-taking following a strong rally in recent days. S&P 500 futures %
The index, which was trading up 0.2%, closed flat in the previous session. Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures are also seeing limited gains. Following the earnings season and the purchases of artificial intelligence stocks, which have bolstered risk appetite in recent weeks, technical saturation signals are evident in the indices. Despite this, according to Barclays data, equity positions held by global macro hedge funds and long-term portfolio strategies are at their highest levels in a year. This suggests that risk appetite remains strong across the market, but the likelihood of a short-term correction is increasing. Piper Sandler analyst Craig Johnson emphasized that a short-term consolidation following the recent rally is healthy and necessary, while noting that any potential pullbacks could be considered a "buying opportunity." On the macro side, the US government shutdown continues to create uncertainty in the market. Due to the shutdown, many economic data releases, including September's inflation data, have been delayed. This makes it difficult for investors to analyze the inflation outlook and the Fed's potential interest rate path. The shutdown, which became the second-longest in US history this week, is raising concerns about growth dynamics, particularly through public sector employee pay and public spending. Investors are focused on trade talks between the US and China. President Donald Trump stated that he anticipates the planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping will "result in a good agreement," but uncertainty remains about whether the meeting will take place. While markets interpreted these remarks as a sign of a potential recovery in the trade pipeline, potential delays are expected to exert short-term pressure on global risk perception. Volatility in the bond market remained low. The US 10-year Treasury yield remained flat at 3.96, while the dollar index weakened slightly. Investors continue to monitor inflation data releases and guidance from Fed officials in the coming weeks, amid limited macroeconomic data flow. A generally cautious positioning trend is evident in US markets. As the end of the earnings season approaches and economic data is delayed, the search for short-term direction becomes more evident, and investors largely prefer to remain in a "wait-and-see" mode.

European Markets

Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.3% to %, while European stock markets remained weak following the pause in the US. Risk appetite remains limited across the region, and investors are closely monitoring this week's inflation data releases and news on US-China trade talks. The 10-year German Treasury yield remained flat at 2.57%, while the UK 10-year yield settled around 4.51%. Mining and metals stocks saw a sell-off, while consumer and financial stocks held relatively firmer. European markets are generally trading within a narrow range, amidst cautious global growth outlook and potential easing signals from central banks.

Asian Markets

Asian indices were mixed throughout the day. Japan's Topix index rose 0.6% to break even, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.9% to 1%, as weakness in technology stocks weighed on the index. The Shanghai Composite Index was flat, with investors maintaining expectations for additional stimulus despite the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy. Regionally, volatility in commodity prices and a sell-off in precious metals stocks curbed risk appetite across Asia. On the macro side, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a new economic support package aimed at easing inflationary pressures on households and offsetting lost real income. Markets are interpreting this move as a sign of the government's commitment to supporting growth. Japanese exports rose for the first time in five months, driven by rising chip and electronic parts shipments; however, exports to the US continued to decline. In China, investors are closely monitoring policy measures targeting the real estate sector and the debt risk associated with local government financing. Expectations that Beijing may implement targeted stimulus measures to stabilize the economy are partially supporting the indices. Meanwhile, pullbacks in mining and semiconductor stocks in Australia and South Korea have weighed on regional indices. Asian markets are generally exhibiting cautious pricing amid uncertainty surrounding global interest rate paths and US-China trade talks.

Commodities

Gold entered a recovery trend after its sharpest drop in 12 years the day before. Spot gold prices rose 0.2% to 4,134 $/ounce. While a technical correction dominated the markets following the sharp drop of 5.3% in the previous session, analysts emphasized that the move stemmed from position closings rather than a macroeconomic shock. Saxo Markets Chief Strategist Charu Chanana stated that the sell-off should be interpreted as a "position clearing" and that it did not yet signal a systemic risk. Silver also recovered with limited buying after a sharp drop of 7.1% the day before. Central bank purchases, concerns about the fiscal discipline of developed countries, and geopolitical risks**, which have supported gold prices in recent weeks, continue to be supportive factors for precious metals in the medium term, despite the short-term decline. ANZ analysts stated that the halt in CFTC data flow due to the government shutdown has rendered leveraged funds' position accumulation invisible, and this uncertainty has paved the way for sharp price movements. On the energy front, oil prices continued their upward trend. WTI crude oil rose 1.8% to 58.29 $/barrel, while Brent crude saw a similar increase. News that the US and India are nearing a trade agreement aimed at gradually reducing Russian oil imports contributed to the rise. This development reinforces expectations of a potential supply contraction, while traders continue to price in geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South Asia. Commodity markets in general continue to search for direction due to the high volatility of recent weeks and investors' oscillation between risk aversion and repositioning. While the technical correction continues in gold and silver, supply-side developments on the energy side continue to support pricing.

EUR/USD

The relatively strong dollar index continues to pressure the pair, with EUR/USD settling below the 1.1650 support level. While this morning's calm pricing is attracting attention in the FX market, a pullback throughout the week could see levels around 1.15 emerge.

Support Levels
➢ 1.1590
➢ 1.1570
➢ 1.1450
Resistance Levels
➢ 1.1650
➢ 1.1750
➢ 1.1820

OUNCE OF GOLD
Following yesterday's sharp pullback in gold prices, a reactionary effort is noteworthy this morning. Strengthened by trend support, the $4,000 psychological level could serve as strong support for further pullbacks. A breakout of this level could lead to further realization.

Support Levels
➢ 4,060
➢ 4,000
➢ 3940
Resistance Levels
➢ 4200
➢ 4380

Brent Oil

Brent crude, which briefly held at the $60 support level, is attempting to gain strength from this support this morning amid supply concerns. A session close above the $62 resistance level could strengthen the upward trend. Technical indicators are showing signs of a reversal from oversold territory.

Support Levels
➢ 60.60
➢ 58.70
➢ 55.00
Resistance Levels
➢ 62.00
➢ 64.70
➢ 65.55

NASDAQ100

In yesterday's mixed performance on Wall Street, the tech index Nasdaq diverged negatively, while Netflix's closing earnings were disappointing. Technically, the upward movement may accelerate in the short term after the 25,190 resistance level is broken on charts where a flag formation is prominent. Tesla's earnings will be closely watched tonight.

Support Levels
➢ 24,790
➢ 24,350
➢ 23,970
Resistance Levels
➢ 25,190

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