The US announced an agreement with Japan. This process will continue until August 1st, so news of any new agreements will be forthcoming. There is significant pressure on the Fed Chair. US President Trump and his administration are warning about interest rate cuts, while also emphasizing that Powell's term expires in eight months. Trump has previously stated that he will not dismiss him, thus quelling market fears. Earnings season has begun in the US, and the earnings figures of major companies, due this week, could influence pricing.

Dollar/TL
Dün veri akışı sakin seyrederken, kurda yatay görünüm etkili oldu. Piyasada gözler TCMB’nin yarınki faiz kararında. Bizim ve piyasanın ağırlıklı beklentisi politika faizinin 250 baz puan indirimle %43,50 düzeyine çekilmesi yönünde. Karar metni bu süreçte önemli olacak. Geleceğe yönelik yönlendirmeler ve iletişim takip edilecek. ABD tarafında ise 30 Temmuz Fed faiz kararı öncesi Fed üyeleri sessiz dönemde. Fed’in 30 Temmuz’daki toplantısında piyasa tarafından faiz değişikliği beklenmiyor. ABD’de 1 Ağustos son tarih öncesi tarife müzakereleri takip edilirken, dolar endeksinde tekrardan zayıflama görülüyor. Bugün yurt içerisinde tüketici güven endeksi, ABD tarafında ise ikinci el konut satışları takip edilecek. Dolar/TL, bu sabah saat 08:10 itibariyle 40,43 civarında yatay seyrediyor.

 

Euro/Dollar
While no significant data was released yesterday, officials' statements and current developments were at the forefront. While uncertainty persists regarding the tariffs the US plans to impose on the European Union, US President Trump announced a major agreement with Japan. Global risk appetite remained positive following the agreement, and Fed Chair J. Powell emphasized the importance of large banks having sufficient capital and effectively managing risks, while also contributing to economic growth in a competitive manner. While no changes are expected at tomorrow's ECB meeting, the pair remains priced around 1.17. Resistance levels for the pair are 1.1768, 1.1792, and 1.1830, while support levels to be monitored are 1.1700, 1.1680, and 1.1662.

 

XAU/USD
The ounce of gold fluctuated between 3.383$ and 3.434$ yesterday and closed the day with buyers at 3.432$. Since the beginning of the week, a weakening trend in the dollar index and an upward trend in gold have dominated. The market is monitoring tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline and the July 30 Fed interest rate decision. While US President D. Trump announced that they made a $550 billion agreement with Japan, negotiations between the US and the EU continue. On the other hand, Fed members have entered a quiet period before the interest rate decision. The market does not expect a change in interest rates from the Fed. Guidance will be important. Tensions have been followed between the US administration and the Fed for a while. The ounce of gold is moving around 3.422$ as of 08:10 this morning, and in the technical view, resistance levels are 3.434$ – 3.451$ and 3.500$; 3.403$ – 3.377$ – 3.350$ and 3.310$ levels can be followed as resistance.

 

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil traded between 67.50 and 68.41, closing the day down 0.45%. Oil prices, which had been subdued throughout the day, recovered most of their losses in the evening with news of an agreement between the US and Japan on tariffs. Trump announced the agreement with Indonesia, while China's State
He announced that he would travel to China at the invitation of his president. As August 1st approaches, news regarding tariffs can be expected to create volatility in oil prices. Brent crude, which started the new day slightly bullish on its 50-day moving average, could face technical support at 67.20, 66.75, and 65.95 on pullbacks. Resistance levels at 68.95, 69.90, and 70.20 could be monitored on pullbacks.

 

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