USA
ABD borsaları pazartesi günü yükselerek rekor serisini sürdürdü. S&P 500 %0,4, Nasdaq %0,5 ve Dow 66 puan artışla kapanışta yeni zirveler yaptı. Nvidia’nın OpenAI’ye 100 milyar dolara kadar yatırım planı, Oracle’daki yönetim değişiklikleri ve Apple’ın iPhone 17 talebi teknoloji hisselerini yukarı taşıdı, Tesla da yeni ürün beklentileriyle 2025 zirvesine ulaştı. Piyasaların odağında ise geçen haftaki faiz indiriminin ardından Fed’in enflasyonla mücadelede vereceği mesajlar bulunuyor. Başkan Donald Trump’ın, bu hafta TikTok’un ABD operasyonlarının Çinli sahibi ByteDance’ten ayrılmasına yönelik anlaşmanın 2024 yasasıyla uyumlu olduğunu açıklaması bekleniyor. Plana göre ByteDance’in payı %20’nin altında kalacak, TikTok ABD ise mevcut ABD’li ve uluslararası şirketlerle birlikte ByteDance dışı yeni yatırımcıların kontrolünde olacak. Oracle ve Silver Lake başlıca yatırımcılar arasında yer alırken, Trump ABD’li destekçiler olarak Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison ve Michael Dell’i öne çıkardı. Anlaşmaya göre ABD’li kullanıcı verileri Oracle tarafından işletilen bulut altyapısında saklanacak ve Trump hukuki geçerliliği onaylayan başkanlık kararnamesini imzalayacak. Çin’in de plana onay verdiği ve ek müzakerelere gerek kalmadığı, yalnızca bazı resmi prosedürlerin tamamlanmasının gerektiği belirtildi.

 

Eurozone
European stock markets are expected to start the week flat as they search for new catalysts to continue their recent rally. There are no major macroeconomic data releases or corporate earnings releases in Europe on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 indexes are trading flat in futures trading. This week's European agenda will be dominated by preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone, Germany, and France, as well as German consumer confidence and Ifo business climate data. Manufacturing activity in Germany is expected to show signs of stabilization after more than three years of contraction, while the UK data agenda is relatively light, with the services sector expected to contract again but at a slower pace. The focus will be on preliminary PMI data, which is expected to show a slight slowdown in services and the ongoing contraction in manufacturing, as well as surveys on retail trade.

 

Türkiye
We've just finished a day of near-flat exchange rate volatility. Domestically, the consumer confidence index fell 0.5 points in September compared to the previous month, falling to 83.9. Meanwhile, the number of foreign visitors increased by 2.05 percent in August compared to the same month last year, reaching 6.96 million. The data releases had no impact on pricing. Domestic data flow was quiet today. In the US, preliminary PMI data and Fed Chair J. Powell's speech will be closely watched. Throughout the week, the meeting between President Erdoğan and US President D. Trump on September 25th will be closely watched.

EUR/USD
The euro is trading just above $1.175, remaining close to a four-year high of $1.192 reached last week. Investors are focusing on preliminary HCOB PMI data, monetary policy indicators, and statements from ECB and Fed officials. The ECB signaled that the rate-cutting cycle may be ending and highlighted inflation risks. In response, the Fed made its first rate cut since December, signaling an additional 50 basis point cut by year-end, but Powell emphasized that this was not the start of a new easing cycle. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.1750 – 1.1699 – 1.1678
Resistances: 1.1827 – 1.1853 – 1.1904

GBP/USD
Sterling traded around $1.35, close to its lowest level in two weeks at $1.346 set last week. As investors await preliminary PMI data from S&P Global and statements from the Bank of England and the Fed, the UK's weak fiscal outlook is causing concern. Public borrowing rose to £18 billion in August, exceeding expectations, adding to pressure ahead of the November budget and pushing 30-year bond yields to record levels. The BoE held interest rates steady at %4, slowing the pace of monetary tightening and maintaining its cautious stance; market expectations for the first rate cut have been postponed to 2026. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.3470 – 1.3427 – 1.3403
Resistances: 1.3538 – 1.3562 – 1.3605

XAU/USD
Gold hit a new record high on Tuesday, rising above $3,750 an ounce, with expectations of further Fed rate cuts supported by a weaker dollar. The Fed cut interest rates last week and signaled two additional cuts later this year, citing weakness in the labor market. New Fed member Stephen Miran called for more aggressive rate cuts, while other members emphasized the need for caution amid inflationary pressures. Markets will be closely watching Powell's remarks today and the PCE inflation data due on Friday. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 3704 – 3661 – 3638
Resistances: 3769 – 3791 – 3831

XAG/USD
Silver traded just below $44 an ounce on Tuesday, remaining close to 14-year highs. While Fed members highlighted signs of stabilizing inflation and urged caution in interest rate cuts, new member Stephen Miran argued for deeper easing. Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Powell's remarks and Friday's PCE inflation data for policy direction. Tight supply and strong demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics sectors are supporting prices. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 43.34 – 42.63 – 42.25
Resistances: 44.43 – 44.81 – 45.52

Brent Crude Oil
The price of Brent crude fell to $66.1 per barrel on Tuesday, recording its fifth consecutive decline, as concerns about ample supply outweighed geopolitical risks in the market. Iraq is reportedly preparing to restart exports from the Kurdistan pipeline, which has been halted for more than two years, and this could add approximately 230,000 barrels of oil to the market. The country is also increasing its exports as part of the OPEC+ agreement, planning September shipments in the range of 3.4–3.45 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, allegations that Russia violated Estonian and Polish airspace, as well as discussions in the Middle East over the recognition of the state of Palestine, continue to keep regional tensions high. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 65.90 – 65.24 – 64.54
Resistances: 67.26 – 67.96 – 68.62

Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI crude oil fell below $62, its fifth consecutive decline, as supply concerns overshadowed geopolitical risks. Iraq's resumption of Kurdistan pipeline exports and increased shipments under OPEC+ could bring additional supply to the market. NATO's accusations of airspace violations against Russia and discussions in the Middle East regarding recognition of a Palestinian state are keeping regional tensions high. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 61.61 – 60.92 – 60.24
Resistances: 62.98 – 63.66 – 64.35

Nasdaq (Near Term)
The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% on Monday, hitting a record high for the third consecutive day, with technology stocks driving the rally. Nvidia's $100 billion investment plan in OpenAI, structural changes at Oracle, Apple's demand for the iPhone 17, and Tesla expectations supported the index. The S&P 500 also rose 0.44% to a record high, while investors focused on this week's PCE inflation data. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 24575 – 24399 – 24298
Resistors: 24852 – 24953 – 25129

Dow Jones (Near Term)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14% on Monday, posting its fourth consecutive gain and closing at a record high. The rally, led by tech giants, was fueled by strong performances from Nvidia, Oracle, Apple, and Tesla. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reached new highs, while investors are focused on this week's PCE inflation data. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 46105 – 45849 – 45685
Resistors: 46525 – 46689 – 46945

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