Market Agenda
US President Trump's tariffs continue to influence market trends. The US has stated that it will reduce tariffs on European Union goods if they enter the US market. The course of the process between the EU and the US is crucial. News on this issue will be closely monitored today. US President Trump is expected to visit the Fed today. Whether Trump will speak with the Fed Chair remains uncertain. Developments regarding Trump and the Fed will be important throughout the day. Earnings season in the US and the announced corporate earnings will also influence pricing.
It can influence the course of the economy. Global markets will be closely watching the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and US data today. We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which last cut interest rates in March 2025 and then paused for a while, to continue cutting rates at its meeting today. You can find our detailed assessment on the second page of our newsletter.

USD/TRY
Yesterday, while emerging market currencies appreciated significantly against the dollar, the Turkish lira was the second weakest-performing emerging market currency, losing 0.1% to %. With the Turkish Lira's negative divergence, the exchange rate closed above 40.45, and technical indicators support the possibility of a move in the 40.20-40.75 range in the near term. Indicators and emerging price formations suggest that a sustained decline below 40.20 is unlikely. The exchange rate, currently trading at historic highs, offers support at 40.26, 40.16, and 40.02.

EUR/TRY
Trend and momentum indicators point to a gradual continuation of the EURTRY's upward trend, while highlighting the possibility of a near-term move within the 47-49 range. Indicators suggest that the exchange rate may retreat to 47, but any declines are unlikely to be sustained. With EURTRY trading at historic highs, short-term support levels of 47.55, 47.20, and 46.90 stand out.

EUR/USD
Technical indicators for the dollar index continue to point to oversold territory. Accordingly, we assess that a reaction rally around 97 could occur, putting pressure on the pair. Having broken down from the upward channel on the daily chart, indicators indicate that the downward trend has room up to 1.15, where the 50-day moving average crosses. Indicators are pointing to a range of 1.15-1.18 for the near term. Short-term support for the pair is at 1.1755, 1.1690, and 1.1630, while resistance levels are at 1.1830, 1.19, and 1.1958.

GBP/USD
Contrary to expectations, the GBP/USD managed to maintain its upward movement above 1.35, continuing its upward movement. Technical indicators suggest a near-term move within the 1.34-1.3750 range. Looking at short-term technical levels, support is at 1.3550, 1.35, and 1.3460, while resistance is at 1.3595, 1.3650, and 1.3687.

XAU/USD
Based on signals from technical indicators, we maintain our view that gold may trade within the 3.285$ - 3.500$ range in the short term. Indicators indicate a continuation of the upward trend on the daily chart, suggesting that the move above the 3.285$ level, where the trend has crossed, may be maintained. For gold, support levels are 3.385$, 3.350$, and 3.330$, while resistance levels are 3.415$ and the all-time high of 3.450$.

XAG/USD
Silver, which fell below 39$ this morning with a loss of close to %1, continues its upward movement within the upper band of the ascending channel. Technical indicators suggest that the direction may reverse from the channel resistance level, and that a sell-off above 39$ could trigger a short-term pullback below 38$. While we do not expect a break in the main upward trend, we believe caution is warranted against short-term corrections. Support levels for silver are 38.56$, 38$, and 37.60$, while resistance levels are 39.10$, 39.75$, and 40$.

BRENT
Brent crude futures contracts briefly recovered after the new trade agreement between the US and Japan boosted optimism about the demand outlook, coupled with the announcement of a decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories in the US signaling strong demand. However, these gains were short-lived. Oil prices displayed a weak performance again yesterday, testing below $67.5 per barrel. The Japanese agreement, along with the US Energy Secretary's statements regarding potential sanctions on Russian oil, had generated some upward momentum. However, this optimism proved limited. From a technical perspective, we continue to view the price below $68 as a risky area. Despite a brief recovery following strong demand signals, these gains proved insufficient. Oil prices displayed a weak performance again yesterday, testing below $67.5 per barrel. The Japanese agreement, along with the US Energy Secretary's statements regarding potential sanctions on Russian oil, had generated some upward momentum. However, this optimism proved limited. From a technical perspective, we continue to view the price below $68 as a risky area.

Tesla’nın Net Kârı 2. Çeyrekte %16 Geriledi; Gelir Beklentilerin Altında
Tesla, 2025 yılının ikinci çeyreğinde net kârının geçen yılın aynı dönemine göre %16 azalarak 1,2 milyar dolara gerilediğini açıkladı.
Şirketin geliri %12 düşüşle 22,5 milyar dolara indi ve piyasa beklentilerinin altında kaldı. Hisse başına kâr, geçen yılın aynı dönemindeki 0,40 dolardan 0,33 dolara geriledi.
Çeyrek boyunca küresel araç teslimatları %13 düşerek 384.122 adede indi. Üretim hacminde ise anlamlı bir değişim görülmedi. Yönetim, weak demand, ongoing tariff volatility, uncertainties in fiscal policies and a challenging macroeconomic environment listed as the main risk factors.
The company launched its first robotaxi service in Austin in June and has also begun pilot production of a new, more affordable model. Mass production of the "Semi" and "Cybercab" models is scheduled to begin in 2026.
Tesla, which has recently faced protests and boycotts in the US due to CEO Elon Musk's political positions, showed the weakest performance among the "Magnificent Seven" technology stocks in 2025.

Alphabet Reports Better-Than-Expected Profit and Revenue in Q2 2025, Raises Investment Target.
Alphabet, 2025 yılının ikinci çeyreğinde piyasa beklentilerinin üzerinde gelir ve kâr açıkladı. Şirketin geliri %14 artışla 96,43 milyar dolar oldu (beklenti: 94 milyar dolar). Hisse başına kâr ise 2,31 dolar ile tahminlerin üzerinde gerçekleşti (beklenti: 2,18 dolar). Net kâr yıllık bazda %20 artarak 28,2 milyar dolara yükseldi.
Google Cloud geliri %32 artışla 13,62 milyar dolara ulaşırken, YouTube reklam gelirleri 9,8 milyar dolar ile beklentilerin üzerinde gerçekleşti. Şirketin reklam gelirleri toplamda %10,4 artışla 71,34 milyar dolara çıktı. Alphabet, 2025 yılı için sermaye harcaması öngörüsünü 10 milyar dolar artırarak 85 milyar dolara yükseltti. Bu artışın, Google Cloud ürün ve hizmetlerine olan güçlü ve artan talepten kaynaklandığı belirtildi. Şirket, 2026 yılında da sermaye harcamalarını artırmayı planlıyor.
Meanwhile, the "Other Bets" segment saw revenue rise to $373 million, but the segment recorded a loss of $1.25 billion. Alphabet is also making significant strides in artificial intelligence. The company's Gemini chatbot application has reached 450 million monthly active users. Google's AI search product, AI Overviews, serves over 2 billion monthly users. Alphabet's cloud infrastructure agreement with OpenAI also attracted attention.
Toplam faaliyet giderleri yıllık bazda %20 artışla 26,1 milyar dolara çıkarken, bunun önemli kısmı yasal süreçler ve özellikle ABD’deki bir veri gizliliği davası sonucunda ödenen 1,4 milyar dolarlık ceza kaynaklı oldu.
The company's management stated that there may be a short-term slowdown in advertising revenue in the third quarter as the impact of strong spending due to the US elections at the end of 2024 fades.

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