• USA
    Cautious statements from FOMC members on monetary policy during a busy schedule of speeches throughout the week dampened risk appetite, while U.S. futures fell for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.3, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4, extending losses that snapped a three-day gain on Tuesday. AI pioneers were particularly under pressure; Nvidia fell close to 1.3 despite its announced $100 billion partnership with OpenAI, Oracle lost 1.7, and Micron fell 2.9 despite its strong balance sheet. Meanwhile, Alibaba's promise to increase its AI investments to over $50 billion sent its shares up 8.2 in New York. Valuation concerns, combined with Fed Chair Powell's warnings that "inflation and labor risks persist, and stock prices remain high," reinforced the cautious tone. On the bond front, 10-year yields are hovering around %4.14, with investors focused on today's weekly jobless claims release and tomorrow's PCE inflation data. With mixed messages from the Fed, markets are pricing in a total of 43 basis points of interest rate cuts at the remaining two meetings of the year, but the likelihood of a move in October has diminished. On the macro front, August's better-than-expected new home sales provided some support to growth concerns. However, the possibility of an impending government shutdown and the perception of a seasonal weakness are limiting risk appetite.

 

  • Eurozone
    European stock markets are poised for a slight decline, following Thursday's decline on Wall Street. Concerns about high valuations and questions about the durability of the AI rally are weighing on investor sentiment. Uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut path is also weighing on markets, while month-end and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing appears to have reinforced the cautious tone. In Europe, investors will be focusing on the October German GfK consumer confidence survey, along with Eurozone auto registration and loan data. In futures, the Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 contracts fell approximately %0.1% before market open.

 

  • Türkiye
    Domestically, the real sector confidence index fell slightly from 100.6 in September to 100.2, while the capacity utilization rate stood at 74.00%. Looking at the US, new home sales in August were announced at 800,000, above expectations of 650,000. While the impact of released data and news flows on pricing was limited, we've just completed a day of slightly upward trends in the exchange rate. Domestically, data flow will be quiet today, and the Erdoğan-Trump meeting will be closely watched.

 

EUR/USD
Euro, zayıf Almanya Ifo verisi sonrası 1,178 seviyesine gerileyerek Eylül ortasında gördüğü dört yıllık zirveden uzaklaştı. Euro Bölgesi PMI sonuçları hizmetlerde güçlü büyüme gösterirken, imalatta daralma sinyali verdi. Fed Başkanı Powell’ın temkinli söylemleri sonrası piyasalar Ekim’de faiz indirimi ihtimalini %90’ın üzerinde fiyatlıyor, gözler Cuma günkü PCE verisine çevrildi. Gün içi teknik seviyeler olarak;
Supports: 1.1704 – 1.1670 – 1.1613
Resistances: 1.1794 – 1.1852 – 1.1885

GBP/USD
The Sterling GBP/USD exchange rate rose to 1.3457 on September 25, 2025, showing a 0.05% increase compared to the previous session. Sterling has lost 0.15% of its value in the last month. However, it has gained 0.35% in the last 12 months. Intraday technical levels are as follows;
Supports: 1.3405 – 1.3365 – 1.3304
Resistances: 1.3507 – 1.3568 – 1.3609

XAU/USD
Gold traded sideways around $3,730 an ounce amid uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate path. Powell's cautious messages and divergences among Fed members drew attention, while strong US home sales complicated expectations of a rate cut. Geopolitical risks, meanwhile, continued to support safe-haven demand. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 3709 -3682 – 3647
Resistors: 3771 – 3806 – 3832

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