USA
Global markets will focus on the Fed's PCE inflation data on the final trading day of the week, which will shed light on the Fed's interest rate path. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5, marking their third consecutive decline. Strong macroeconomic data contributed to the sell-off in stock markets; jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000, while second-quarter growth, supported by consumer spending and investment, was revised to 3.8. These data dampened expectations for deeper rate cuts from the Fed. On the bond market, the 10-year yield rose above 4.15, hitting a three-week high, putting additional pressure on stocks. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors declined, with healthcare, consumer services, and materials the biggest losers. The dollar index, meanwhile, remained above 98.4, rising approximately %1 on a weekly basis, marking its strongest performance in two months. PCE data, to be released today, is expected to be a determining factor in expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.

 

Eurozone
Yatırımcılar, önceki seansta görülen kayıpları telafi etmeye çalışırken Avrupa endeks vadelilerinin seansın Cuma günü hafif yükselişle başlayacağına işaret etmesi ile risk iştahındaki toparlanma öne çıkıyor. Ancak ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın mobilya, ağır kamyon ve ilaç ithalatına yönelik yeni gümrük tarifelerini açıklaması ve güçlü gelen ABD verilerinin Fed’den daha agresif faiz indirimleri beklentilerini zayıflatması, yukarı yönlü hareketi sınırlayabilir. Gün içinde İspanya GSYH’si, Fransa istihdam verileri ve İtalya iş dünyası ile tüketici güveni rakamları bölgesel görünüm açısından yakından takip edilecek. Vadeli işlemlerde Euro Stoxx 50 ve Stoxx 600 endeksleri %0,3 civarında primli seyrediyor. Avrupa Komisyonu’nun önümüzdeki haftalarda Çin’den ithal edilen çelik ve ilgili ürünlere %25 ila %50 arasında gümrük vergisi getirmeye hazırlandığı bildirildi. Komisyon Başkanı Ursula von der Leyen, küresel arz fazlasının Avrupa çelik sektöründe kâr marjlarını baskıladığına ve karbon azaltım yatırımlarını engellediğine dikkat çekerek mevcut çelik koruma önlemlerinin 2026 ortasından sonra uzatılamayacağını, bu nedenle uzun vadeli bir ticaret aracı geliştirileceğini açıklamıştı. Bu gelişme, Avrupa sanayi hisseleri ve küresel ticaret dengeleri açısından yakından izlenecek.

 

Türkiye
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) gross reserves increased from $177.9 billion to $178.9 billion last week, while net reserves rose from $69.6 billion to $70.4 billion. Total currency-protected deposits decreased by 24.1 billion TL last week to 320.7 billion TL. Looking at the US, economic growth for the second quarter was 3.8 percent, exceeding expectations of 3.3 percent. Durable goods orders increased by 2.9 percent month-over-month, creating a strong outlook, while unemployment benefit applications rose by 218,000 last week, below expectations. The data had a limited impact on the exchange rate. The dollar index rose following strong US data. The Fed's core PCE inflation indicator will be monitored in the US today.

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair rose by 0.14% to 1.1678 on September 26, 2025. The euro gained 0.26% against the dollar in the past month. On an annual basis, the pair increased by 4.61%. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.1621 – 1.1579 – 1.1512
Resistances: 1.1729 – 1.1795 – 1.1837

GBP/USD
Sterling fell below $1.335, nearing a seven-week low, amid inflation risks and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's (BoE) policy. Divergent messaging from the BoE, coupled with a high inflation outlook, added to the pressure. Furthermore, strong US data supported the dollar, deepening sterling's losses. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.3286 – 1.3233 – 1.3143
Resistances: 1.3429 – 1.3519 – 1.3573

XAU/USD
Gold prices fell to $3,740 as strong US data dampened expectations of a Fed rate cut. Markets are focused on today's PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, Trump's new tariffs, which will take effect on October 1, are supporting safe-haven demand. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 3727 – 3704 – 3687
Resistors: 3766 – 3783 – 3806

XAG/USD
Silver retreated from a 14-year high, falling below $45, as strong US data supported the dollar. While markets anticipate a quarter-point Fed cut in October, overall easing pricing for this year has diminished. Despite this, silver is still up %4 on the week thanks to strong industrial demand and supply constraints. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 44.21 – 43.26 – 42.75
Resistances: 45.666 – 46.16 – 47.11

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude rose to an eight-week high, approaching $70, on Russian supply concerns and heading for its strongest weekly gain since early June. Russia's decision to curb fuel exports following the Ukraine attacks supported prices, while the US's call for Türkiye to halt its purchases of Russian oil also added to the pressure. However, the resumption of Kurdish oil exports and weakening expectations for a US interest rate cut are limiting the upside. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 68.62 – 67.96 – 67.26
Resistances: 69.50 – 70.00 – 70.60

Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI crude oil climbed above $65 a barrel, heading for its strongest weekly gain since early June, reaching a three-week high and the strongest weekly gain since the beginning of June, amid concerns about Russian supply. Russia's restrictions on fuel exports following the Ukraine attacks and the US's call for Türkiye to halt its purchases of Russian oil supported prices. However, the resumption of Kurdish oil exports and weakening expectations for a US interest rate cut are limiting the upside. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 64.39 – 63.58 – 63.12
Resistances: 65.66- 66.12 – 66.93

Nasdaq (Near Term)
Nasdaq futures were flat on Friday, while the tech-heavy index fell 0.5% on Thursday, marking its third straight loss. Technology stocks remained under pressure as strong unemployment and growth data dampened expectations for deeper rate cuts from the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a three-week high of 4.15%, fueling the sell-off, while healthcare, consumer services, and materials were among the leading losses in the S&P 500. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 24202 – 24008 – 23834
Resistors: 24569 – 24743 – 24937

Dow Jones (Near Term)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% on Thursday, marking its third consecutive loss and a key indicator of market weakness. Strong unemployment and growth data dampened expectations for deeper interest rate cuts from the Fed, while bond yields rose to a three-week high of 4.15%, adding to the selling pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell 0.5% on the same day, following the Dow's lead. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 45752 – 45544- 45311
Resistors: 46193 – 46426 – 46634

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