Fitch and Moody's rating decisions were announced domestically
After domestic markets closed on Friday, credit rating agencies Fitch and Moody's announced their assessments of Türkiye. Market expectations were generally that neither agency would make any changes to its credit rating or outlook. In line with expectations, Fitch affirmed Türkiye's credit rating as "BB-" and its outlook as "stable." Contrary to expectations, Moody's, in its assessment, affirmed Türkiye's credit rating as "BB-" and its outlook as "stable."
The rating was raised from “B1” to “Ba3.” The rating indicated the CBRT’s commitment to monetary policies that permanently reduce inflationary pressures, eliminate economic imbalances, and gradually rebuild the confidence of both domestic savers and foreign investors in the Turkish Lira. The institution emphasized that this development also reflects the improvement in Türkiye’s effective policy-making capacity. Moody’s last raised Türkiye’s credit rating by two notches from “B3” to “B1” on July 19, 2024, and maintained its outlook as “positive.”

 

Trade talks and deal news were at the forefront
While the US's trade talks with other countries continue to maintain their importance, developments and news flows on the subject are being closely monitored. Last Tuesday, US President Trump said,
Filipinler ile ticaret anlaşmasını tamamladıklarını, bu anlaşma kapsamında ülkenin ABD’ye pazarını açacağını ve gümrük vergisi uygulamayacağını bildirdi. Çarşamba günü de ABD ile Japonya arasında ticaret anlaşmasına varıldığı ABD Başkanı Trump tarafından duyuruldu. Bu anlaşmayla Japonya’nın ABD’ye ihracatına karşılıklı olarak yüzde 15 gümrük vergisi getirileceği ve otomobil vergilerinin de bu seviyeye indirileceği bildirildi. Anlaşma, Japonya’dan ABD’ye yapılacak 550 milyar dolarlık yatırım ve kredi paketini de içeriyor. ABD Başkanı Trump, ülkelere yönelik karşılıklı tarifeleri açıkladığı 2 Nisan’da Japonya’ya %24 tarife getirileceğini belirtmişti. Temmuz ayında Japonya’ya gönderilen tarife mektubunda da Trump, bu ülkeye 1 Ağustos’tan itibaren sektörel
tarifelerden ayrı olarak %25 tarife uygulanacağını kaydetmişti. Geçen haftaki anlaşma haberlerinin ardından piyasaların dikkati ABD ve Avrupa Birliği arasında süregelen görüşmelere çevrildi.
ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, pazarını Amerikan şirketlerine açmayı kabul ederse, Avrupa Birliği’nin (AB) daha düşük gümrük vergisi ödemesine izin vereceklerini söyledi. ABD Ticaret Bakanı Howard Lutnick, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nin Avrupa Birliği ile bir ticaret anlaşması yapabileceğinden emin olduğunu ifade etti. Avrupa Birliği ve ABD, müzakereler hakkında bilgi veren diplomatlar, %15 gümrük vergisi öngören bir anlaşma sağlama yolunda ilerlendiği belirtti. ABD ve Avrupa Birliği arasında bir anlaşmanın sağlanıp sağlanamayacağının ön planda olduğu süreçte, 27 Temmuz Pazar günü ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, Avrupa Birliği (AB) ile ticaret anlaşması görüşmelerini tamamladıklarını ve AB ürünlerine yüzde 15 tarife uygulayacaklarını açıkladı. AB ile çerçeve bir ticaret anlaşması konusunda uzlaştıklarını belirten Trump, Avrupa Birliği’nin ABD’den 750 milyar dolarlık enerji ürünü almayı kabul ettiğini ve ayrıca ABD’de 600 milyar dolardan fazla yatırım yapacağını ifade etti.

 

The Fed meeting will be closely watched next week.
Many Fed officials, especially Fed Chair Powell, have recently adopted a more cautious stance, arguing that the impact of tariffs will have a more significant impact on inflation in the coming months, that no hasty decisions should be made before these impacts are seen, that the labor market remains generally strong despite the cooling, that there is no reason for the Fed to rush, and that it is in a good position. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting, which ends on Wednesday, July 30th. No change in interest rates is expected.
Although not expected, Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting messages will be important. Following the Fed meeting, nonfarm payrolls data, to be released on Friday, August 1st, will be closely watched by markets. While June's nonfarm payrolls data surprised positively by exceeding expectations, it is a natural consequence of the Fed's tight monetary policy that employment
A cooling is observed in the financial market. While the Fed is generally adopting a more cautious stance, a deepening deterioration in the labor market could force it to cut interest rates, as it did between August and September 2024. Therefore, the general outlook of the labor market will continue to be closely monitored, and economic data, along with the course of inflation, will be the primary determinant of the Fed's decisions. Additionally, while the ongoing 2025/2Q financial results period in the US continues to be monitored, the financial performance and forecast updates of the large technology companies, particularly the Magnificent Seven, will have an impact on the course of US markets and risk appetite.

 

ECB pauses interest rate cut cycle
The European Central Bank, which has cut interest rates at every meeting since September 2024 and has cut them by a total of 100 basis points so far in 2025, was expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July 24 meeting and to suspend the interest rate cut cycle it has been implementing since the last quarter of last year. In line with expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged at its Thursday meeting and maintained the deposit rate at %2.0. The decision text stated that the latest data was generally consistent with the ECB's previous assessments of the inflation outlook. However, it noted that the current environment remained exceptionally uncertain, particularly due to trade disputes. The ECB emphasized its commitment to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target in the medium term and maintained its guidance that it would pursue a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach to determining its monetary policy stance. At the press conference held after the meeting, ECB President Lagarde stated that the ECB does not have a specific interest rate policy. Lagarde stated that inflation is around 2% and that the ECB is currently in a good position. The ECB President stated that inflation is in line with its targets, that its long-term expectations are around 2%, and that these expectations are stable. Lagarde noted that a strong euro could reduce inflation more than expected, adding that they are paying attention to the progress of global trade negotiations but are unsure how tariffs and the slowdown in trade will impact inflation.

 

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut interest rates by 300 basis points.
Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) perşembe günkü toplantısında 300 baz puan faiz indirimine giderek politika faizini %46,0’dan %43,0 seviyesine çekti. Kurul ayrıca, gecelik vadede borç verme faiz oranını %49’dan %46’ya, gecelik vadede borçlanma faiz oranını ise %44,5’ten %41,5’e indirdi. TCMB, faiz indiriminde adımların büyüklüğünün, enflasyon görünümü odaklı, toplantı bazlı ve ihtiyatlı bir yaklaşımla gözden geçirileceğini vurguladı. Aynı zamanda TCMB öncü verilerin temmuzda aylık enflasyonun aya özgü unsurlarla geçici olarak artacağına işaret ettiğini belirtti. Politika metnini genel olarak değerlendirdiğimizde, TCMB’nin faiz indirimlerinin devam edeceği sinyali vermekle birlikte, sıkı duruş vurgusunu da tutarak dengeli bir metin yayınlamaya çalıştığını söyleyebiliriz. Sene sonu TÜFE enflasyonu beklentimizi %32 seviyesinde bulunsa da TÜFE enflasyonu eylül itibariyle %30 seviyelerine (belki bir miktar altına) kadar gerileyebileceğini bekliyoruz. Döviz rezervlerinde yurt içi ya da yurt dışı kaynaklı olarak bir geri dönüş olmayacağı varsayımıyla, TCMB’nin bu süreçte 11 Eylül ve 23 Ekim toplantılarında da faiz indirimlerine devam ederek politika faizini %37,0 – %37,5 seviyelerine kadar çekebileceğini düşünüyoruz. TCMB’nin faiz indirim döngüsüne yeniden başlamasının önümüzdeki süreçte piyasalar için destekleyici olacağı görüşümüzü sürdürüyoruz.

 

Positive outlook in BIST100
While the interest rate cut expectations for the Central Bank contributed to the strengthening of the rises in Borsa Istanbul in July, it was a strong resistance in the BIST100 Index at the beginning of last week.
izlediğimiz 10.380 bölgesinin aşılmasıyla alımların güç kazandığı takip edildi. Pazartesi günü bankacılık sektörü öncülüğünde genele yayılan alımların ardından hafta içerisinde dalgalı bir seyrin öne çıktığı endekste, TCMB kararının izlendiği perşembe günü artış kaydeden volatiliteyle birlikte yeniden alımlar gözlendi. Haftanın son işlem gününde ise kâr satışları etkili oldu. Böylece BIST100 Endeksi geçen haftayı %2,67 oranında bir yükselişle 10.643 puandan tamamladı. Moody’s’in kredi notunu artırmasının olumlu etkisiyle birlikte aynı zamanda ABD ile Avrupa Birliği’nin ticaret anlaşmasına varmasının küresel çapta oluşturabileceği pozitif havanın katkısıyla, Borsa İstanbul’un yeni haftaya pozitif bir açılışla başlamasını bekliyoruz. Bu noktada geçen hafta güçlü bir direnç olarak çalışan 10.680 – 10.700 bölgesi üzerinde bir açılış beklediğimiz BIST100 Endeksi’nde bu bölge üzerinde kalıcılığın korunması yükseliş eğiliminin devamlılığı açısından önem taşıyacaktır. Endekste kısa vadede 10.800 – 10.850 aralığı ile devamında 17 Mart’ta test edilen 10.900 seviyesi direnç olarak takip edilecektir. 10.900 üzerindeki fiyatlamalarda psikolojik öneme sahip 11.000 seviyesi direnç olarak önem kazanacak olup, 11.000 üzeri kapanışlar 11.252 tarihi zirve seviyesine doğru yükselişleri beraberinde getirebilir. Endekste 10.680 üzerinde kalıcılığın sağlanamaması halinde 10.600 – 10.550 aralığı ile devamında 10.500 seviyesi kısa vadeli destek noktaları olarak takip edilecektir. 10.500 desteği kırılacak olursa güçlü bir direnç olarak çalışan ve kırılmasıyla birlikte destek konumunda geçen 10.380 seviyesi önem kazanacak olup, 10.380 altındaki kapanışlarda 10.200 – 10.000 bölgesine doğru geri çekilmeler gündeme gelebilir. 24 Temmuz toplantısında 300 baz puan faiz indirimiyle politika faizini %46,0’dan %43,0 seviyesine çeken TCMB’nin yılın ikinci yarısında kalan toplantılarında faiz indirimlerini sürdürmesi durumunda Borsa İstanbul’un ilk yarıya kıyasla daha iyi bir performans sergileyebileceğini değerlendiriyoruz. Ancak gerek yurt içi gerekse yurt dışı kaynaklı gelişmelerin ve risk başlıklarının yakından izlenmesi önem taşımaktadır. TCMB’nin faiz indirim döngüsünü yavaşlatabilecek/aksatabilecek olası gelişmeler Borsa İstanbul’da yeniden satış baskısını artırabilir. Bu hususta varlık çeşitlendirmesinin iyi bir şekilde yapılması ve hisse tarafında doğru sektör/şirket tercihinin son derece önemli olduğunu da belirtmek isteriz. Son olarak yurt içerisinde başlayan 2025/2Ç finansal sonuç dönemi de yakından izlenecek olup, finansalların açıklanmasıyla birlikte hisse bazlı hareketlerin kaydedildiği ve volatilitenin artış kaydettiği görülebilir.

 

What Will We Talk About in the New Week?
It's the final week in global markets for US President Trump to finalize trade agreements. The deadline had been postponed until August 1st, and during this period, the Trump administration began sending letters to countries. Agreements have been finalized with major trading partners, Japan, and now the European Union. Because this is the final week, US trade agreements will be the most closely watched topic this week. They may continue to have an impact on markets. Earnings season has also begun in the US. Corporate earnings will be monitored this week, and these earnings are expected to influence stock-based movements. The most important announcement on the US data calendar will be the Fed's week. This week is Fed week in the US. The Fed is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 30th. Recent statements from Fed members have suggested they will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. Therefore, expectations for a rate cut for the July meeting are low. However, expectations for two rate cuts for the remaining three meetings in 2025 remain on the table. On Wednesday, the outcome of the interest rate decision and the details of the decision text will be the first to be followed. Following these headlines, Fed Chair Powell's speech will be crucial. There is ongoing tension between US President Trump and the Fed. Despite Trump's visit to the Fed and meeting with Powell last week, the pressure for a rate cut continues. Political pressure on the Fed is worrying markets. Trump's statement that he will not dismiss Powell somewhat alleviates these concerns. Therefore, what Powell will say about Trump's pressure on interest rates this week is a matter of interest. Markets will also be closely watching for any signals he may give regarding the policy they will pursue for the remaining meetings. Asian markets will be watching the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Thursday, July 31st. While no changes are expected from the bank, their statements will be important in shaping expectations. European markets will be closely watching the release of data. Domestically, the unemployment rate, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee meeting summary, and manufacturing PMI data are available. Potential statements from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will be closely monitored throughout the week.

 

Türkiye
There are no significant data releases in domestic markets during the first two trading days of the week. The economic confidence index for July will be released on Wednesday, July 30th. The most recently released data was 96.71. Labor force statistics for June are also expected to be released. The unemployment rate for May was 8.40 percent. A summary of the CBRT's interest rate decision meeting held on July 24th will be released on Thursday, July 31st. It will be important to see the details of the meeting. As a reminder, on Thursday, July 24th, the CBRT announced its decision to cut interest rates by 300 basis points, reinforcing the expectation that interest rate cuts are on the table for the remaining three meetings in 2025. The ISO manufacturing PMI for July will be released on Friday, August 1st. The most recently released data was 46.70. Potential announcements from the economic administration will be monitored throughout the week.

 

Europe
There are no major agenda items in European markets during the first two trading days of the week. June retail sales in Germany, second-quarter growth data, Wednesday, July 30
July's consumer confidence index and second-quarter growth data will be monitored from the Eurozone. On Thursday, July 31st, the unemployment rate and July inflation in Germany will be monitored. The Eurozone unemployment rate is also expected to be released. On Friday, August 1st, PMI data for the manufacturing sector will be monitored in Europe. The threshold for PMI data is seen as 50, with a reading above this level interpreted as growth in the sector, while a reading below this level indicates contraction. The Eurozone CPI forecast for July will also be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is behind us. The Bank's decision was followed last week. Bank officials may make speeches this week. Their statements on interest rates will be closely watched.

 

USA
Secondary data is expected to be released on the first trading day of the week in US markets. Tuesday, July 29th is a data-heavy day in the US. The May housing price index, June wholesale inventories, and July Central Bank consumer confidence index will be released. Wednesday, July 30th will be followed by the ADP private sector employment change for July. Second-quarter first-reading growth data and June pending home sales are among the data to watch. The Fed's interest rate decision will also be watched that day. The Fed is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. While the Fed is not expected to touch interest rates at that meeting, the wording of the decision and Fed Chair Powell's speech after the decision will be important. Market volatility stemming from the Fed is likely to occur on Wednesday. Thursday, July 31st will feature the release of the core personal consumption expenditures index, which is included in the Fed's economic projections. The weekly unemployment claims report will also be monitored on the same day. Friday, August 1st, is Employment Day in the US, with July's unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings data expected to be released. The US Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be released on the same day. Following the Fed's interest rate decision, Fed members' speeches may begin throughout the rest of the week. Their discussions on interest rates will be crucial and could help shape expectations for the remaining three meetings of the year.

 

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