In global markets, the anticipated trade agreement between the European Union and the US has materialized. The US has lowered its tariffs on the EU to 15 percent. There had been anticipation of an agreement since last week, supporting risk appetite. This news has maintained optimism. News regarding trade agreements will be forthcoming throughout the week, as Friday, August 1st is the deadline. New agreements will continue to support risk appetite.

 

Dollar/TL
International credit rating agency Moody's upgraded Türkiye's credit rating from 'B1' to 'Ba3' and revised the outlook from positive to 'stable'. Fitch, another international credit rating agency, affirmed Türkiye's credit rating at 'BB-' and its outlook at 'stable'. The market expected no change from either rating agency. As of this morning, we observe that the data had a limited impact on pricing. Domestic data flow is relatively weak this week, while Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision and Friday's employment data will be at the forefront of the US market. Tariff negotiations will also be closely watched ahead of the August 1st deadline. The USD/TRY exchange rate is trading nearly flat at around 40.54 as of 08:10 this morning, while the dollar index is around 97.65.

 

Euro/Dollar
Haftanın son işlem günü Almanya’da iş dünyası güvenini ölçen Ifo’nun güven endeksi Temmuz’da ılımlı bir yükselişle 88,6 seviyesine yükseldi. ABD’de dayanıklı mal siparişleri, haziranda %9,3 ile beklenenden yavaş hızda düşüş kaydetti.1 Ağustos öncesi ana gündemi oluşturan ticaret anlaşmalarına ilişkin haber akışları ön planda kalmaya devam ediyor. ABD Başkanı D. Trump, Avrupa Birliği ile ticaret anlaşması görüşmelerini tamamladıklarını ve AB ürünlerine %15 tarife uygulayacaklarını açıkladı. Bu hafta Fed’in toplantısında bir değişikliğe gidilmesi beklenmezken, karar metninde verilecek mesajlar kritik olacak. Paritede 1,1750 seviyesi üzerinde yukarıda 1,1778 – 1,1810 ve 1,1830 direnç, 1,1710 – 1,1684 ve 1,1655 izlenecek desteklerdir.

 

XAU/USD
The yellow metal, which saw buying trends in the first two trading days of last week, was dominated by selling trends in the last three trading days. In the general outlook, undecided trends continue in a wide range between 3.500$ and 3.121$ since April 22, 2025. This week, tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline will be monitored, and a trade agreement was reached between the US and the EU. On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate decision and US growth data on Wednesday, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, core PCE data, on Thursday, and the US employment data on Friday will be the key data streams. As of 08:10 this morning, gold is trading with slight buyers around 3.339$, and in the technical outlook, the 3.310$ – 3.282$ and 3.247$ levels provide support; 3.351$ – 3.377$ – 3.403$ and 3.439$ levels can be monitored as resistance.

 

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil fluctuated between 69.00$ and 67.53$ on Friday, closing the day at 67.59$ with a decrease of %1.44. While there is no significant data flow that will push prices up on the supply side for Brent oil, geopolitical risks have relatively diminished. In this process, Russia's ceasefire talks with Ukraine are at the forefront, and previously US President D. Trump had threatened Russia with additional tariffs. On the other hand, while the US and the EU are reaching a trade agreement, tariff negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline are being closely watched in terms of oil demand. The Fed's interest rate decision and US employment and core PCE data will be at the forefront throughout this week. Brent oil is traded around 68.11$ as of 08:10 this morning, with support levels of 67.53$ – 67.20$ – 66.96$ and 66.15$; 68.45$ – 69.00$ and 69.97$ levels can be watched as resistance.

 

Interest rates
The 10-year long-term Treasury bond yield increased by 29 basis points to 31.62 percent, while the 2-year short-term Treasury bond yield increased by 10 basis points to 40.51 percent.
The two-year Treasury bond yield is at %3.92, the five-year yield is at %3.96, and the 10-year yield is at %4.39. Moody's raised Türkiye's credit rating from B1 to Ba3 and revised its outlook from positive to stable. Fitch affirmed Türkiye's credit rating at "BB-" and its outlook as "stable." The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced on July 30.

 

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