• Global markets are focused on the Fed's interest rate decision. No rate cut is expected at today's meeting. Details of the decision text and Fed Chair Powell's speech will help shape expectations for the remaining meetings. While negotiations between the US and China are progressing, the likelihood of a tariff delay between the two countries appears high. The US ADP private sector employment change and the first reading of Q2 growth data will also be released today.

Dollar/TL
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its growth expectations for Turkey for 2025 and 2026 upwards in its report. The institution raised the 2025 growth rate from 2.7 percent to 3 percent and the 2026 growth rate from 3.2 percent to 3.3 percent. Türkiye's economic confidence index and unemployment rate will be released today. The US agenda is focused on the ADP private sector employment change, the first reading of Q2 growth, and pending home sales. Following the data release, markets will focus on the Fed's interest rate decision. No interest rate cut is expected from the Fed. Fed Chair Powell's speech and the details of the decision text will be important in shaping expectations for the remaining meetings in 2025. As of 08:20 this morning, the USD/TRY exchange rate remains flat around 40.57.

 

Euro/Dollar
Avrupa Merkez Bankası Euro Bölgesi’nde tüketicilerin enflasyon beklentilerinin geçen ay yavaşladığını bildirdi. ABD’de JOLTS açık iş sayısı, Haziran’da 7 milyon 437 bine gerileyerek piyasa beklentilerinin altında gerçekleşti. Ülkede conference board tüketici güven endeksi, temmuzda 97,2’ye yükselerek piyasa beklentilerinin üzerinde açıklanırken, konut fiyatlarının artış hızı Mayıs’ta da yavaşladı. ABD’nin mal ticareti açığı, Haziran ayında %10,8 azalarak, 86 milyar dolara geriledi. ABD’nin mal ithalatı %4,2 azalarak 264,2 milyar dolara gerilerken, ihracatı ise %0,6 azalarak 178,2 milyar dolara düştü. Fed’den gelecek sinyaller günün ana temasını oluştururken, paritede 1.1600 – 1.1652 and 1.1695 resistance, 1.1520 – 1.1486 and 1.1446 supports to be monitored.

 

XAU/USD
Gold fluctuated between 3.308$ and 3.334$ yesterday, closing the day with a limited increase at 3.327$. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the talks with China were very constructive. US President Trump announced that he gave Russia 10 days to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and that sanctions would be imposed if no agreement was reached. Today's Fed meeting will be closely watched globally. While it is almost certain that the Fed will not change interest rates, Fed Chair Powell's statements after the meeting will be important. As of 08:10 this morning, gold was trading sideways around 3.3200$, and the technical outlook is 3.310$ – 3.282$ – 3.247$ And 3.230$ support levels; 3.345$ – 3.360$ – 3.377$ And 3.400$ levels can be monitored as resistance.

 

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil fluctuated between 69.15$ and 72.16$ yesterday, closing the day at 71.71$, up %4.20. US President Donald Trump reiterated his statement that he gave Russia 10 days to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and that sanctions would be imposed if no agreement was reached by the end of this period. Meanwhile, trade talks with China were reportedly quite constructive, and no changes are expected from the Fed today. Fed Chair Powell's statements and the signals in the text will be closely monitored. Brent crude oil was trading at 71.72 as of 07:50 this morning, and the technical outlook is 71,92$ – 72,28$ – 72,50$ – 73,00$ levels of resistance; 70,84$ – 70,32$ – 69,94$ And 69,10$ levels can be monitored as support.

 

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