USA
A cautious tone prevails in global markets on Wednesday. The official government shutdown in the US, triggered by Democrats and Republicans' failure to agree on a temporary budget, is weighing on investors' risk appetite. The dollar index stabilized at 97.8 after a three-day loss, while uncertainty about the duration of the shutdown could delay the release of economic data. Today's ADP private sector employment data is crucial for markets, especially ahead of Friday's expected nonfarm payrolls report. The US 10-year Treasury yield
While interest rates are holding steady around 4.15%, gold is trading near record levels, approaching $3,870 an ounce due to safe-haven demand. US stocks are showing a sell-off in futures trading, and if the shutdown is prolonged, uncertainty could increase in the lead-up to the Fed's meeting at the end of October. Meanwhile, JOLTS data released on Tuesday showed that the labor force
The market signaled a slowdown. In corporate news, Nike rose %4.5 in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Investors will be closely monitoring both the economic data calendar and developments regarding the duration of the lockdown.

Eurozone
Global risk appetite is being supported by strong corporate balance sheets, the artificial intelligence theme, and expectations for further interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. European markets are poised for a positive open on Thursday. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are expected to rise by 0.6% and Stoxx 600 futures by 0.5%, respectively, to extend their record highs. The US government shutdown, expected to last at least three days, is being largely ignored by investors. Eurozone unemployment figures and French budget figures are the primary focus in Europe. Eurozone inflation, announced yesterday, rose to 2.2% year-over-year in September, in line with expectations, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will hold its policy rate steady until the end of the year. No major corporate balance sheets are available today.

Türkiye
Domestically, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) Istanbul Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.19 percent monthly and 40.75 percent annually in September. The ISO Turkey Manufacturing PMI fell from 47.3 to 46.7 in September. In his speech at the opening meeting of the new legislative year of the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), President Erdoğan stated that they planned to reduce inflation below 30 percent in three months and that 2026 would be a year of reform in the Turkish economy. In the US, ADP private sector employment decreased by 32,000 jobs, despite expectations for a 52,000 increase. This was the sharpest employment loss in 30 months. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, at 49.1 in September, remained slightly above expectations but below the 50 threshold. The data's impact on pricing was limited.

EUR/USD
The euro rose above $1.17 as inflation rose to 2.2 percent, while expectations that the ECB would keep interest rates steady strengthened, and the dollar fell on weak ADP data.
Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 1.1703 – 1.1677 – 1.1640
Resistances: 1.1766 – 1.1804 – 1.1829

GBP/USD
Sterling rose to $1,347, extending a four-day winning streak, supported by dollar weakness and the BoE's decision to hold interest rates steady, while the government shutdown has put pressure on the US
It creates pressure on the side. As intraday technical levels;
Supports: 1.3429 – 1.3385 – 1.3336
Resistances: 1.3522 – 1.3571 – 1.3615

XAU/USD
Gold traded near record highs around $3,860 on Thursday. This outlook reflects expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates and the safe-haven price
ADP data showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first consecutive decline since 2020, and interest rates
increased the likelihood of a rate cut. However, due to the government shutdown, the September nonfarm payroll report will not be released this week. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court ruled that the Fed
member Lisa Cook's decision partially eased concerns about the central bank's independence. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 3846- 3829 – 3804
Resistors: 3888 – 3912 – 3930

XAG/USD
Silver traded above $47 on Thursday, staying near 14-year highs. It's safe to expect another US government shutdown after seven years.
While port demand is increasing, September nonfarm payroll data is expected to be delayed. The ADP data showing a surprise 32,000 job loss is expected to be higher than the labor force data.
pointing to weakness in the financial market, strengthening expectations for further Fed rate cuts. However, Fed official Goolsbee said inflation risks remain and
He emphasized that policy should not be relaxed quickly. Furthermore, the Silver Institute predicts that supply will remain approximately 100 million ounces below demand in 2025, indicating that global
He noted that the silver market will experience a deficit for the fifth consecutive year. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 46.66 – 46.03 – 45.45
Resistances: 47.87 – 48.45 – 49.08

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude rose slightly to around $65 a barrel on Thursday but remained near four-month lows. With OPEC+ set to meet this weekend, supply could be increased.
Speculation has combined with rising crude oil and gasoline inventories in the U.S., fueling concerns about oversupply. Gasoline demand is at a six-month low
The decline in GDP and weakening manufacturing in Asia have increased short-term consumption concerns. The US government shutdown has delayed the flow of economic data, contributing to global
highlighted risks to growth and put pressure on oil prices. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 65.90 – 64.24 – 64.54
Resistances: 67.26 – 67.96 – 68.62

Crude Oil
WTI crude rose slightly around $62 a barrel on Thursday but remained near four-month lows. Supply ahead of OPEC+ meeting
While speculation about a price hike has intensified, rising crude oil and product inventories in the US and weakening gasoline demand have raised concerns about oversupply.
The contraction in manufacturing activity in Asia has negatively impacted the regional demand outlook. Furthermore, the US government shutdown has negatively impacted the global economic
This increased uncertainty and put additional pressure on oil prices. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 61.13 – 60.51 – 59.64
Resistances: 62.61 – 63.48 – 64.10

Nasdaq (Near Term)
The Nasdaq index rose 0.42 on Wednesday, highlighted by buying in technology stocks despite the US government shutdown.
Pharmaceutical stocks surged on drug pricing agreements with Pfizer as investors ignored weak ADP employment data and the postponement of the non-farm payroll report.
It found additional support due to the agreement. Intraday technical levels are as follows;
Supports: 24528 – 24268 – 24128
Resistors: 24927 – 25068 – 25327

Dow Jones (Near Term)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat on Wednesday, with a limited gain of 0.09, despite the government shutdown and weak employment data, as investors remain cautious.
While the rise in pharmaceutical stocks provided support to the market, overall risk appetite remained weaker than in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 46124- 45844 – 45642
Resistors: 46606 – 46808 – 47088

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