Wall Street traded flat on Tuesday after closing flat earlier in the week. Investors continue to await this week's retail sector earnings releases and further developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DW) fell 0.1%. The 10-year US Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.35%, and the 2-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 3.76%. Investors are focused on this week's retail balance sheets and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. On the political front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a commitment to purchase $90 billion in US arms from the US following talks in Washington to provide security guarantees. Days after Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Zelenskyy and European leaders met with Trump as part of the US's efforts to end the war. Trump announced his desire to arrange a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy and that he had called Putin to begin preparations for the meeting. Zelenskyy stated that they are ready for talks, while the Kremlin has not yet made any formal commitments. European leaders also emphasized the constructive atmosphere following the meeting, with British Prime Minister Starmer saying he was very pleased with the results. On the balance sheet front, Home Depot (HD) will announce its second-quarter results before the bell, kicking off the retail earnings season. Markets will also keep an eye on the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors will be looking for signals from Powell's statements about the timing of interest rate cuts and whether the Fed will maintain its cautious stance. The economic calendar is light on Tuesday. July housing starts and building permits are due to be released. Housing starts are expected to decline from 1.321 million in June to 1.290 million in July. Permits are expected to fall from 1.397 million to 1.390 million. Fed Deputy Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech titled "Supporting New Technologies in the Banking System." European stock markets rose on Tuesday. The Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 indexes rose 0.1%. This gain was supported by optimism about the US-Ukraine talks in Washington, while defense stocks capped gains on signs of a possible de-escalation. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defense index fell 0.4%, while Renk fell 3.6%, Saab fell 3.3%, and Leonardo fell 2.9%. Trump told Zelenskyy that the US would help guarantee Ukraine's security under any peace agreement, but details were not yet finalized. In corporate news, Italy's Mediobanca won ECB approval to acquire Banca Generali, creating the country's second-largest asset management firm, and countered Monte dei Paschi's takeover attempts. Investors are focused on policy signals to be delivered at the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium.

BRENT

Brent petrol vadeli işlemleri, Salı günü Rusya-Ukrayna görüşmesine dair beklentilerin ortasında varil başına 66 dolar seviyesine doğru geriledi. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, Pazartesi günü Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı Volodimir Zelenskiy ve Avrupalı liderlerle yaptığı zirvenin ardından Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin’i aradığını ve Putin ile Zelenskiy arasında bir görüşme ayarlamaya başladığını, bu görüşmenin ardından üç liderin katılacağı bir zirvenin düzenleneceğini açıkladı. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşına dair olası bir çözüm, Rus enerji ihracatına yönelik yaptırımların sona ermesine ve Rus petrolünün serbestçe ticaretine imkan tanıyabilir. Petrol fiyatları, ticaret gerilimleri ve artan OPEC+ üretiminin baskısıyla bu ay halihazırda yaklaşık %10 düşüş yaşadı. OPEC+ arzı da baskı oluşturuyor. Brent fiyatı, 65,34 (Fibo %61,8) desteği üzerinde tutunuyor. Yukarı yönlü hareketlerde 67,56 (Fibo %50) ve 69,77 (Fibo %38,2) seviyeleri direnç olarak izlenebilirken, aşağıda 62,59 (Fibo %76,4) ana destek konumunda. RSI nötr bölgede, MACD zayıf pozitif sinyal üretirken kısa vadede yatay-destekli bir görünüm ön planda. Teknik seviyeler olarak;
Resistances: 67.56 – 69.77 – 72.52
Supports: 65.34 – 62.59 – 58.16

OUNCE OF GOLD

Altın fiyatları Salı günü ons başına 3.330 doların üzerine çıktı. Yatırımcılar, ABD öncülüğünde Ukrayna savaşını sona erdirmeye yönelik girişimleri değerlendirirken gözler aynı zamanda Fed’in yıllık Jackson Hole sempozyumuna çevrildi. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump, Pazartesi günü Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı Volodimir Zelenskiy ve Avrupalı liderlerle yaptığı görüşmenin ardından Rusya Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin ile görüştüğünü ve Putin-Zelenskiy buluşmasını ayarlamaya çalıştığını, sonrasında ise üç liderin katılacağı bir zirvenin planlandığını açıkladı. Bu durum olası bir barış anlaşmasına yönelik umutları artırsa da yatırımcılar yakın vadede bir ilerleme konusunda temkinli kaldı. Öte yandan dikkatler, bu hafta Wyoming’de konuşma yapacak olan Fed Başkanı Jerome Powell’a çevrilmiş durumda. Piyasa aktörleri, Eylül ayında Fed’in faiz indirimlerine yeniden başlayıp başlamayacağına dair ipuçları arıyor. Şu anda piyasalar, gelecek ay 25 baz puanlık faiz indirimi olasılığını %84 olarak fiyatlıyor.Altın vadeli kontrat grafiğinde fiyat kısa vadede 3.336 (Fibo %38,2) desteği üzerinde tutunmaya çalışıyor. Yukarı yönlü hareketlerde 3.414 (Fibo %23,6) ve 3.470 – 3.539 bandı güçlü direnç olarak öne çıkarken, aşağıda 3.274 (Fibo %50) ve 3.211 (Fibo %61,8) seviyeleri destek konumunda. RSI nötr bölgede yatay seyrederken, MACD zayıf görünümünü koruyor, bu da fiyatın kısa vadede yatay-destekli hareketini sürdürebileceğini, ancak yeniden 3.414 üzerinde kalıcılık sağlanırsa fiyatlar yukarı ivmelenebilir..Kısa vadeli teknik seviyeler olarak;
Resistances: 3414 – 3470 – 3539
Supports: 3336 – 3274 – 3211

S&P 500

U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday after volatile trading the previous day. On Monday, the S&P 500 fell just below the plateau, with the Dow shedding nearly 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.03%. Markets focused on earnings presentations from major retailers like Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, which could offer insights into consumer spending trends and tariff pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend and the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting will also be closely watched as investors seek clarity on the central bank's next interest rate move. The S&P 500 was mostly flat on Tuesday after closing flat at the beginning of the week. The 6,500 and 6,700 levels offer strong resistance on the upside, while the 6,407 and 6,277 (EMA50 support) are critical supports for any potential downside corrections. The RSI indicator is moving horizontally at 60 levels, but has not entered the overbought zone, indicating that the upward potential continues; the MACD is moving horizontally in the positive zone, indicating that the trend maintains its upward momentum but there is a possibility of consolidation in the short term. As short-term technical levels;
Resistances: 6500 – 6600 – 6700
Supports: 6497 – 6277 – 6080

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