What Happened?

• According to the minutes of the Fed's July meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweigh labor market concerns. Nearly all Fed members favored keeping interest rates between 4.25 and 4.5 percent.
• Donald Trump said he would not approve solar and wind energy projects in the USA.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that before the Ukraine invasion, less than 1 percent of India's oil came from Russia, but that this figure has now risen to 42 percent. Bessent noted that some wealthy Indians are reselling imported oil.
• The USA will impose sanctions on 2 judges and 2 deputy prosecutors at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• The central government debt stock stood at 12 trillion 45.3 billion TL as of July 31, 2025. The previous gross debt stock was 11.46 billion TL.
• The government and civil servant unions failed to reach an agreement in collective bargaining negotiations, and Memur-Sen decided to take its raise proposal to the Arbitration Board. The arbitration board will make the final decision.
• Minister of Labor and Social Security Işıkhan stated that they would respect the decision of the Arbitration Board and said that they had reached an agreement on the previous terms regarding the civil servants, item by item.

EURUSD
The EUR/USD started the new trading day flat. The pair, which started the new day at 1.164, maintained its calm course in the following trading hours. If we examine the data sets released yesterday from the European side, the first is the Consumer Price Index data, which was in line with expectations and remained stable at 2 percent. While there has been no change in inflation since June, the possibility that the euro, which continues to remain strong against the dollar, may pose an obstacle to Europe's trade volume remains an option. On the other hand, ECB President Lagarde, in various statements yesterday, stated that she expects an economic slowdown in the third quarter and that this could have an impact on the interest rate decision in September. Europe, which has generally faced many crises, appears to have emerged from this process without serious damage. In terms of the economic calendar, PMI data will be released at 11:00 Turkish time. The expectation for the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is 49.5, slightly below the previous data. Technically; The levels 1.1677 – 1.1732 – 1.1778 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 1.1616 – 1.1575 – 1.1524 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 1.1677
Resistance 2– 1.1732
Resistance 3– 1.1778
Support 1– 1.1616
Support 2– 1.1575
Support 3– 1.1524

OIL
Oil began the new trading day on a positive note. Crude, which opened at 62.86, rose to 63.18 in the following trading hours. Yesterday's US Crude Inventories data came in well below expectations. Crude, which lost nearly 1 percent during the session, quickly recovered its losses and closed the day positive. The announced crude inventories appear to have been a driving force for oil, which has gained over 1 percent since the beginning of the week. Oil, which has recently maintained a sideways trend at its lowest levels in the last four years, tested its highest levels since mid-month. Today's PMI data set from the US could cause volatility in oil. Technically, resistance levels for crude oil are 64.26, 65.49, and 66.66, while support levels are 61.66, 59.92, and 57.75.

Resistance 1–64.26
Resistance 2–65.49
Resistance 3–66.66
Support 1–61.66
Support 2–59.92
Support 3- 57.75

Gold
Safe haven gold began the new trading day with a slight sell-off. After opening around $3,350, gold tested $3,340 later in the trading hours. The minutes of yesterday's FOMC meeting were generally divided. Fed members, unable to clearly predict the consequences of the tariffs, stated that inflation remains a high risk. Some officials, however, stated that a waiting period is not feasible. The main concern is that high inflation will persist while the labor market outlook continues to weaken. Meanwhile, for safe haven gold, which has a busy economic data schedule, the first item to be released is Unemployment Claims at 3:30 PM GMT. The dataset is expected to reach 226K GMT. As we mentioned, the employment market is another concern for the Fed, which fears persistent inflation. This dataset could become even more significant than its predecessors. Another important dataset will be the PMI data, which will be released at 4:45 PM GMT. Data flows can cause volatility in gold. Technically, resistance levels at 3349, 3360, and 3370 can be monitored, while support levels at 3330, 3315, and 3300 can be monitored.

Resistance 1– 3349
Resistance 2– 3360
Resistance 3 – 3370
Support 1–3330
Support 2–3315
Support 3–3300

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