What Happened?
• International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings reported that consumer spending in the US slowed sharply in the first half of the year as the weakening labor market and tariffs increased inflation.
• The US manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 53.3 in August, the highest level since May 2022.
• The European Union and the United States have taken steps to formalize a trade deal detailing plans that could reduce tariffs on European-made cars within weeks.
• US President Donald Trump made an unexpected statement regarding the Ukraine-Russia War, saying, "It is very difficult, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an occupying country."
• 21 countries, including the UK and France, issued a joint statement condemning Israel's approval of the "E1" settlement plan.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he approved the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) plans to capture Gaza City, saying, “I have instructed the immediate start of negotiations to release all our hostages and end the war under conditions acceptable to Israel.”
• Core consumer inflation in Japan slowed for the second consecutive month in July but remained well above the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) target of %2.

USA
Piyasalar, politika görünümüne dair yeni ipuçları almak için Fed Başkanı Jerome Powell’ın Jackson Hole’daki konuşmasını bekliyor. Piyasalar, Powell’ın yakın vadede faiz indirimine yönelik beklentilere karşı çıkmasından endişe ederken, piyasalar faiz oranlarının seyri konusunda netlik arıyor. Vadeli işlemler, Eylül ayında 25 baz puanlık bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini şu anda yaklaşık %75 olarak fiyatlıyor, bu oran geçen hafta %90’ın üzerindeydi. Yetkililer, tarifelerle ilgili fiyat baskılarının enflasyon riskleri oluşturmaya devam ettiğini, işgücü piyasasında ise zayıflama işaretlerinin sınırlı kaldığını belirtti. Kansas City Fed Başkanı Jeffrey Schmid, enflasyon riskleri göz önüne alındığında ılımlı derecede kısıtlayıcı para politikasının hâlâ uygun olduğunu söylerken, Cleveland Fed Başkanı Beth Hammack ise bu aşamada faiz indirimlerini desteklemediğini vurguladı. ABD 10 yıllık Hazine tahvillerinin getirisi Cuma günü %4,32’nin üzerinde kalarak son yükselişini sürdürdü. Dolar endeksi Cuma günü 98,6’nın üzerinde sağlam bir şekilde tutundu. Altın, ons başına yaklaşık 3.330 dolara kadar geriledi.

Eurozone
European stock markets are set for a weak start on Friday as investors remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are seeking clarity on the trajectory of U.S. interest rates amid concerns that Powell may defy expectations for a near-term rate cut. In Europe, attention will turn to Germany's final second-quarter GDP data and France's August business confidence figures, which could provide additional indicators of the region's economic momentum. No major corporate earnings releases are expected on Friday. Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures were down about %0.1% ahead of the open.

Türkiye
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) gross reserves increased from $174.4 billion to $176.5 billion last week, while net reserves rose from $67.6 billion to $70 billion. Net reserves excluding swaps increased from $49.6 billion to $52.1 billion. Total currency-protected deposits decreased by 17.97 billion TL last week to 440.6 billion TL. The consumer confidence index rose slightly from 83.5 to 84.3 in August. Fed Chair Powell's speech will be watched at the symposium today. The Fed meeting will be held on September 16-17, and expectations for a rate cut remain strong. It will be important for him to support these expectations in his speech today. Failure to do so could weaken interest rate cut expectations, albeit slightly. We believe Powell's speech today could influence the market. The domestic calendar is quiet today.

EUR/USD
The euro has remained in a tight range since the beginning of the week, holding around $1.165 on Thursday, preserving most of its gains this year as markets evaluate new data and developments in trade with the US. We are monitoring the 1.1622 level for the EUR/USD pair. Below this level, support can be monitored at 1.1582-1.1561. In the event of a potential recovery, if the 1.1622 resistance level is broken, the 1.1643-1.1683 level could be targeted again as resistance. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 1.1582 – 1.1561 – 1.1521
Resistances: 1.1643 – 1.1683 – 1.1705

GBP/USD
Technically, we are monitoring the GBP/USD pair at 1.3433 in the short term. It may be necessary to see a sustained level above this level for upward expectations to come to the fore.
Under these conditions, increases towards the 1.3462 - 1.3510 levels can be observed again. In case of declines, the 1.3385 - 1.3356 levels can be followed as support. As intraday technical levels;
Supports: 1.3385 – 1.3356 – 1.3308
Resistances: 1.3462 – 1.3510 – 1.3539

XAU/USD
Gold extended recent losses to around $3,330 an ounce on Friday, holding within a narrow range as investors avoided large moves ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks in Jackson Hole. Moves below 3,338 could see declines towards 3,325-3,311. For any recovery, a break above the 3,338 resistance level could target 3,351-3,365. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 3325 – 3311 – 3298
Resistors: 3351 – 3365 – 3378

XAG/USD
Silver held firm above $38 an ounce on Friday after two consecutive sessions of gains, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for signals on the interest rate outlook. Technically, we are monitoring silver at 37.95. A break above that level may be necessary for further upward movement. For moves below that level, support levels of 37.70 and 37.28 can be monitored. Intraday technical levels:
Supports: 37.70 – 37.28 – 37.03
Resistances: 38.38 – 38.62 – 39.05

Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude futures traded above $67 a barrel on Friday, heading for their first weekly gain in three weeks as hopes for a swift U.S.-brokered agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war faded. Technically, any move above 67.36 could pave the way for a recovery to 67.99-68.41. In the event of potential selling pressure, support levels at 66.94-66.31 are emerging. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 66.94 – 66.31 – 65.89
Resistances: 67.99 – 68.41 – 69.04

Crude Oil (WTI)
We are technically monitoring the 63.20 level for crude oil. For any recovery to continue, it may be necessary to maintain a steady level above this level. In the event of an uptrend, resistance levels of 63.90-64.35 can be monitored. In the event of a decline, a breakdown of the 63.20 support level could lead to declines towards 62.75-62.05. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 63.20- 62.75 – 62.05
Resistances: 63.90 -64.35 - 65.05

Nasdaq (Near Term)
Technically, we are monitoring the 23236 level for the Nasdaq index futures contract. Below this level, support levels of 23105-22988 can be monitored. In case of a potential recovery,
If the 23236 resistance is overcome, the 23353 - 23485 levels may become targets again. As intraday technical levels;
Supports: 23105 – 22988 – 22856
Resistors: 23353 – 23485 – 23602

Dow Jones (Near Term)
In the short term, we are technically monitoring the DJ index at 44852. A strong close above this level may be necessary for further upward movement. If the pressure continues below this level, support levels of 44679 and 44473 can be monitored. Intraday technical levels include:
Supports: 44679 – 44473 – 44301
Resistors: 45058 – 45230 – 45436

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