US Markets

A cautious yet positive outlook dominated US markets at the beginning of the week. Following the strong rally seen in US Treasury bonds last Friday, bond yields partially rebounded in the new week. In particular, the 2-year benchmark bond yield increased by two basis points to 3.53. This move shows that investors are focused on the Fed's new steps in short-term interest rates. The dollar index also gained 0.1 basis points against global currencies, trending slightly upwards by %, maintaining its safe-haven perception. A limited recovery was also notable on the stock front; S&P 500 futures contracts increased by 0.1 TP3T. Expectations regarding Fed policies were the most determining factor in the course of US markets. The weak non-farm payrolls data released last week confirmed the slowdown in the labor market, and as a result, investors began to price in a higher probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in each of the remaining three meetings of the year. This brought the “bad news, good news” perception to the fore in the markets; In other words, signals of economic cooling were seen as a supportive factor in the markets due to the expectation of loose monetary policy.

European Markets

Expectations for a positive start to the week dominated European markets on the first trading day. The 0.5% rise in Euro Stoxx 50 futures signaled an optimistic start to the day for the continent's leading stock markets. Rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts in global markets are the most significant factor supporting risk appetite in Europe, with technology and industrial stocks expected to be particularly positively impacted by this sentiment. A calmer outlook prevailed in the bond market. Ahead of the confidence vote in France, government bonds showed little movement, and yields remained flat. This suggests that investors are currently remaining cautious in pricing in political uncertainty, but risk perception has not significantly increased. While risk appetite remains generally strong in European markets, it appears that data from the US and clues about the Fed's interest rate policy continue to have a strong impact on investor behavior on the continent.

Asian Markets

Despite the mixed political developments, an optimistic outlook dominated Asian markets on the first trading day of the week. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation,
This increased political uncertainty and put pressure on the currency. With this development, the yen lost 0.5% of its value against the dollar, falling to 148.17. The weakening yen had a positive impact on Japanese stocks because it provided an advantage to exporting companies. Indeed, the Nikkei 225 index gained 1.2%, and the Topix index gained 0.9%. A recovery trend was also observed regionally. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 0.3%, reflecting the increase in global risk appetite. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Index on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rose 0.4%. The strong performance in the technology sector, in particular, supported the overall Asian markets. Giant technology companies such as Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest contributors to the indices.
In general, despite political uncertainty in Japan, factors such as the weak yen supporting exporters and the strengthening of technology stocks in China and Hong Kong paved the way for regional stock markets to start the new week on a positive note.

Commodities

Commodity markets began the week with a partial recovery. Oil prices (WTI) rose 1.2% to $62.60 a barrel following the OPEC+ countries' decision to limit production increases for next month. This rise is seen as a sign of market stabilization following last week's sharp declines stemming from expectations of a supply increase.

What Happened?
• US President Trump said that European leaders will visit the US this week to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war.

• Fed candidate Hassett emphasized that the central bank should be independent of politics.

• Barclays expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2025, by 25 basis points each in September, October and December. The previous expectation was two 25 basis point rate cuts.

• Japan's economy grew by 1% to 2.2% in the second quarter. Expectations were for growth of 1% to 3%.

• South Korean Finance Minister: The trade agreement was also included in the working group-level talks with the US on the details of the investment package.

• %8 Special Consumption Tax was introduced for yachts, ships and boats.

• Former Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi announced his candidacy for the LDP leadership.

• The Turkish National Women's Volleyball Team came in second in the 2025 World Championship.

EURUSD
The EUR/USD started the first trading day of the week with a flat trend. The parity, which started the new trading day at 1.170, maintained its flat trend in the following trading hours. While selling remains limited in the parity, which continues to trade close to its highest levels of the last 4 years, incoming buying is not enough to surpass the 1.182 level it tested in June so far. Data and news flows continue to have an impact on the parity, which has maintained a volatile outlook for several months. The weak non-farm payroll data from the US and released on Friday put pressure on the dollar while keeping the euro strong. Data flows from the US may be influential in the coming period for the parity, which has gained over 2.5 percent in value since the beginning of the month. Looking at the economic calendar, geopolitical risks and inflation data that could affect central banks' interest rate cut decisions will be closely monitored for the parity, which had a weak day. Technically; The levels 1.1747 – 1.1790 – 1.1833 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 1.1698 – 1.1632 – 1.1577 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 1.1747
Resistance 2– 1.1790
Resistance 3– 1.1833

Support 1– 1.1698
Support 2– 1.1632
Support 3– 1.1577

OIL
In light of recent developments, the rise in oil prices remained limited. Oil, which had been on a near-7% upward trend since mid-last month, has lost 6% in the last three trading days. Meanwhile, OPEC+ countries reached an agreement to increase production next month. Recent developments have significantly weakened oil prices, adding to the OPEC+'s already significant decline. Potential decisions by OPEC+, which aims to increase the amount of oil marketed rather than maintain oil prices, could lead to volatility in oil prices. Another important news stream concerns Russia-US relations. As is well known, the US and Russia held talks last month to end the war, and news reports over the weekend indicated that new US sanctions against Russia were on the table. Following the meeting, which failed to produce any concrete action on the war, the US warned Russia about new measures, and the future of these sanctions remains a matter of curiosity. Geopolitical risks and economic data will be closely monitored. If we examine the Crude product technically, the levels 63.45 – 64.51 – 65.82 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 61.44 – 59.88 – 57.83 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–63.45
Resistance 2–64.51
Resistance 3–65.82

Support 1–61.44
Support 2–59.88
Support 3- 57.83

Gold
Safe haven gold continues to trade at peak prices. Having broken the all-time high of $3,500 last week, gold also continues its positive trend. For now, the new all-time high is $3,600. Weak non-farm payrolls data from the US economy has strengthened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and October. The PMI data, which came in well above expectations despite high interest rates, raised questions about the possible impact of additional tariffs. Fed members, who made various statements about the potential detrimental effects of additional tariffs on the US economy, favored monitoring the economic data flow more closely and making decisions accordingly. Now, all eyes are on the inflation data to be released this week. This inflation data seems to be a serious catalyst for the upcoming Fed interest rate decisions. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. Technically; The levels 3590 and 3600 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 3575 – 3560 – 3545 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 3590
Resistance 2– 3600

Support 1–3575
Support 2–3560
Support 3–3545

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