US Markets

US stock markets had a strong start to the week. The S&P 500 index traded sideways near record highs, while the Nasdaq tested new all-time highs amid heavy buying in technology stocks. Continued appetite for artificial intelligence and the semiconductor sector, in particular, contributed to the Nasdaq's relatively stronger performance. On the interest rate front, markets have almost fully priced in the possibility of a rate cut at this month's Fed meeting. Fed fund futures indicate a roughly 25 basis point cut for September, with expectations for a total of three rate cuts by year-end. However, analysts emphasize that a potential "hawkish" rate cut could signal the Fed's commitment to its inflation target. On the bond front, the 10-year US Treasury yield was flat at %4.05, while volatility in short-term bonds was notable. The decline in long-term yields following weak employment data was limited. While the dollar index weakened against multiple currencies, the price of gold, buoyed by safe-haven demand, hit a new record high of 3,657 $/ounce. Investors are focused on this week's critical inflation data. Thursday's CPI report is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3 % on both the headline and core markets. This data stands out as the most important catalyst that will shape market expectations for the Fed's interest rate path.

European Markets

European stock futures started the new week weakly. Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell by 0.4%, while political uncertainty in the region weighed on the market. In particular, the collapse of the French government following Prime Minister Francois Bayrou's loss of a parliamentary vote of confidence has led to the search for a new cabinet for the third time in a year. This development has increased perceptions of political instability in the country and led to selling pressure on French assets. In the bond market, yield premiums on long-term French bonds have risen, while selling intensified on sovereign bond futures. The German 10-year yield fell to 2.64%, signaling a shift towards relatively safe assets in the region, while the UK 10-year yield fell four basis points to 4.61%. Investors continue to shape their expectations of whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will accelerate its interest rate cut process. While concerns about growth in the region's economy persist, fluctuations in energy prices and global trade flows, in particular, continue to pose risks to the eurozone. However, the euro gained slightly against the dollar, reaching 1.1777. Analysts note that the ECB will closely monitor inflation momentum in the coming months, but political uncertainties could put short-term pressure on financial stability.

Asian Markets

Asia-Pacific stocks were generally positive on the second trading day of the week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains. Technology stocks led the buying, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 0.6%. A recovery in Alibaba and other major technology-focused companies, in particular, supported regional appetite. Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose to record highs during the day, but pared its gains towards the close due to political uncertainty created by the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. However, the development, which fueled expectations for fiscal stimulus, boosted demand for Japanese government bonds, with the 10-year yield falling to 1.56%. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7%.
While weak foreign trade data, driven by a decline in exports to the US, eroded investor confidence, increased sales to other markets helped the country move toward a record trade surplus.

What Happened?

• Erdoğan: The resources we have used for our earthquake zone exceed 75 billion dollars, our goal is to complete and deliver 453,000 independent sections by the beginning of the year.

• Erdoğan: The permanent improvement in our current account deficit will continue, and our goods exports will surpass $300 billion for the first time. We also aim to increase our tourism revenues, the most important item in our service exports, to $75 billion.

• The amount of the departure fee has been increased from 710 TL to 1,000 TL.

• The US Supreme Court temporarily stayed a lower court decision seeking the reinstatement of Federal Trade Commission member Slaughter, whom US President Trump wanted to remove.

• Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa stated that the US will reduce tariffs on Japanese goods such as automobiles and spare parts by September 16.

• Deutsche Bank analistleri Türk tahvil piyasasını değerlendirdikleri raporlarında 2 ve 5 yıl vadeli tahvil getirileriyle ilgili sınırlı bir yukarı yönlü revize yaptı. Analistler, yıl sonunda 2 yıl vadeli tahvilde getiri hedefini 50 baz puan artışla %34’e çıkardı.

EURUSD
The parity started the new trading day with a limited positive trend. Having started the new day at 1.176, the parity tested 1.177 in the following trading hours. Following the confidence vote in France, one of Europe's leading economies, the government fell. Meanwhile, the winds regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, which has accelerated the peace agenda, have completely reversed. European leaders will travel to the US to meet with US President Donald Trump again to end the war. President Donald Trump also signaled that he will move to the second phase of sanctions against Moscow. As a reminder, strict sanctions were imposed on Russia shortly after the war began, but Russia violated some parts of these sanctions and continued to export both oil and natural gas through different companies. The price ceiling imposed on Russian oil was also among the first sanctions decisions. A weak day in terms of the economic calendar awaits us today in Europe, where political tensions are high. Technically speaking; The levels 1.1830 – 1.1904 – 1.1985 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 1.1736 – 1.1685 – 1.1615 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–1.1830
Resistance 2– 1.1904
Resistance 3–1.1985

Support 1– 1.1736
Support 2– 1.1685
Support 3– 1.1615

OIL
Oil started the second trading day of the week on a positive note. Tensions continue to rise in the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia launched a comprehensive airstrike on Ukraine the other day. Oil prices are trending upward amid growing concerns. The decision regarding the matter may become clear after the visit of European leaders to the US and the upcoming meeting on the second-stage sanctions package, previously announced by US President Donald Trump. Crude, which opened the new trading day at $62.44, rose to $62.63 in the following trading hours. Thus, its return to date is approximately 1 percent, while its loss to date this month has narrowed to 2 percent. US-EU talks, geopolitical risks, and economic data flow will be closely monitored. Technically, Crude can be monitored as resistance levels at 64.13, 65.15, and 66.03, while support levels at 62.47, 61.41, and 60.00.

Resistance 1–64.13
Resistance 2–65.15
Resistance 3–66.03

Support 1–62.47
Support 2–61.41
Support 3- 60.00

Gold
The positive outlook for gold continues to hold. Last week, gold surpassed its all-time highs and tested new highs, reaching another high this morning. The safe-haven gold, which has been on a relentless upward trend since last week, reached a new high of 3654. Gold, which has yielded approximately 1.5% since the beginning of the week, is currently approaching 7% monthly. The latest unemployment figures have further strengthened the likelihood of interest rate cuts in September and October. If the wind continues to blow with the same intensity, and if the inflation data from the US comes as expected on Thursday, the positive signs in the data streams previously highlighted by the Fed could pose a strong case for an interest rate cut. Geopolitical risks and economic data will be closely monitored. Technically, the 3660 level can be monitored as resistance, while the 3625, 3610, and 3595 levels can be monitored as support.

Resistance 1–3660

Support 1–3625
Support 2–3610
Support 3–3595

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