What Happened?
• The US Court of Appeals blocked US President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed member Cook.

• The US Senate confirmed Miran as a member of the Fed Board of Governors.

• Trump said Israel would not attack Qatar again.

• Trump said he would file a $15 billion libel and defamation lawsuit against The New York Times.

• It was reported in the media that Trump plans to announce economic agreements exceeding $10 billion during his visit to the UK this week.

• Former St. Louis Fed president Bullard said he spoke with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent last week about chairing the Fed and that he was very interested in the job under the right circumstances.

• Bessent: US will not impose tariffs on China over Russian oil, but Europe needs to act first

USA
US stock indices remain near record highs, while investors' focus is on the Fed meeting, which concludes this week. Recent weak labor market data and inflation figures that are in line with expectations are contributing to the high global risk appetite. This outlook makes a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed almost certain, but the real market debate is focused on the easing path to be followed in the coming period.

The MSCI All Country World Index % rose 0.1%, extending its gains for the 10th consecutive day. This marks the index's longest winning streak in four years.
S&P 500 futures contracts are trading at a 0.1% premium to %, with the index reaching a new all-time high at yesterday's close. In the US stock market, buying is particularly noticeable in technology and growth stocks.
– Bond market activity remained limited. The 10-year US Treasury yield was flat at %4.04, indicating that investors were holding their positions ahead of the Fed's decision. Meanwhile, pricing in a cut in short-term interest rates has become evident.
While a quarter-point interest rate cut is considered a certainty in pricing monetary policy expectations, the prevailing view is that the weak labor market could force the Fed to adopt a more dovish tone. Markets are also keeping the possibility of two or three additional rate cuts on the table for the rest of the year. Investors will be closely watching the Fed's decision on Wednesday, as well as the dot plot projections to be released. Bond yields are expected to steepen further if the newly appointed Fed members signal a lower interest rate path. However, US retail sales data, due on Tuesday before the Fed's decision, could cause short-term fluctuations in risk appetite.

Europe

European stock markets are on a quiet first day of trading, with investors focused on both global interest rate cut expectations and regional political and economic developments. Trading volumes across the continent remain relatively limited, as the US Fed's decision will shape global risk appetite.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures are trading sideways, with investors cautious about short-term direction. The index's current levels reflect global market risk appetite but also reflect the pressures of ongoing uncertainty surrounding the growth outlook in Europe.
The Bank of France has revised downward its economic growth forecast for the next two years. The institution emphasized that increasing uncertainty surrounding the country's budget balance and political instability pose downside risks to the economic outlook. The political vacuum created by recent government crises continues to undermine investor confidence.
US President Donald Trump's visit to the UK this week is also on the market agenda. Trump is expected to announce economic agreements totaling over 10 billion Turkish Lira during talks in London. These agreements are expected to primarily cover the energy, defense, and technology sectors. The possibility that these agreements will both bolster UK foreign trade and signal a new era in transatlantic economic relations is being closely watched in European markets. Investors' focus on Europe is generally shaped by both US monetary policy actions and regional political developments. Political uncertainty in France and the UK's pursuit of new trade agreements are the primary factors driving the risk premium in markets.

Asia

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index % rose 0.7%, setting a new record, closing in on its longest rally in five years. The regional rally was driven by the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this week and the impact of measures taken in China to combat the economic slowdown.

– In Japan, the Topix index % gained 0.5. Another noteworthy development in the market was Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's announcement that he would enter the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership race. Koizumi's candidacy was seen as a factor reducing political uncertainty and also had a strengthening effect on the Japanese yen.
– The Australian S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3%, with mining and commodity stocks leading the gains, while expectations of a global interest rate cut also put downward pressure on the yield curve in the Australian bond market.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Indexes traded flat. Mixed signals regarding the economic recovery continue in China; weak consumption and export data limited the upward movement in the indexes, while expectations for potential new government stimulus measures offset the sell-off. Asian markets, in general, continue to benefit from rising global risk appetite, while the domestic political and economic dynamics of countries in the region also lead to divergent pricing.

Commodities

Global commodity markets saw notable, albeit limited, upward movements in gold and oil prices on the first trading day of the week. Investors' increased demand for safe havens ahead of the Fed meeting pushed gold to record levels, while supply concerns and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East supported oil prices.

Gold rose 0.1% to 3,684 $/ounce, reaching a new all-time high. Soft labor market data released in recent weeks and inflation remaining within expectations have made a Fed rate cut virtually certain. This expectation has fueled interest in non-interest-bearing assets, further bolstering gold's upward trend. The pullback in the dollar index has also provided additional support for precious metals.
WTI crude oil % rose 0.3% to 63.47 $/barrel. Expectations of supply tightening and regional geopolitical risks were driving the price increase. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, in particular, have raised concerns about supply security, while signals of continued OPEC+ production cuts have also helped stabilize prices. Overall, commodity markets maintain a cautious but upward trend driven by global central bank policies and geopolitical risks.

EURUSD
The pair, which made a slightly positive start to the new trading day, tested the 1.178 level with the Asian open. The pair, which started the new day flat, opened at 1.176 and rose as high as 1.178 in the following trading hours. The inflation and employment data to be released in the recent period during which the European Central Bank has been following a wait-and-see strategy will be directional. On the other hand, following the political instability in France, 19 drones that violated Poland's airspace continue to increase the already high tension in the region. For the pair, the economic data flow from the US could undoubtedly cause the euro to gain value against the dollar if the Fed undermines the interest rate cut process. The most important data flow of the week is the Fed interest rate decision, which will be announced tomorrow and will be held subsequently. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. Technically; The levels 1.1831 – 1.1907 – 1.2004 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 1.1735 – 1.1657 – 1.1584 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–1.1831
Resistance 2– 1.1907
Resistance 3– 1.2004

Support 1– 1.1735
Support 2– 1.1657
Support 3– 1.1584

OIL
Oil began the new trading day with mixed activity. Crude, which opened at $63.30, gained limited momentum in the following trading hours, particularly with the opening of Asian markets, rising to $63.51. While efforts to address the Russia-Ukraine war have been in vain, the US and Europe are pursuing new sanctions against Russia. While questions remain about the nature of the new sanctions, any potential production decision could trigger volatility in the oil market. US President Donald Trump stated that the ongoing US-China talks in Madrid are proceeding well and that he will meet with President Xi Jinping on Friday. Any additional decisions or trade agreements made during the meeting, which will bring together the leaders of the world's two largest economies, could trigger price volatility in the oil market. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. If we examine the Crude product technically, the levels 64.12 – 65.82 – 67.66 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 62.72 – 61.51 – 60.05 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–64.12
Resistance 2–65.82
Resistance 3–67.66

Support 1–62.72
Support 2–61.51
Support 3- 60.05

Gold
Safe-haven gold, which closed the first trading day of the week with an increase of over 1 percent, started the second trading day with a fluctuating trend. The upcoming Fed meeting and expectations of an interest rate cut continue to positively affect the gold price. Gold opened the new trading day at 3679 levels and tested $3689, reaching a new all-time high in the following trading hours. If we were to keep a brief retrospective projection regarding the recent rise in gold, we could see that there were concerns about additional customs tariffs in the first months of the year. Mutual retaliation and interim decisions regarding customs tariffs had an increasing effect on risk appetite. Another upward catalyst was undoubtedly the concrete declaration of war between two countries that had been feuding for years: Iran and Israel. Shortly thereafter, this war was brought under control, while tensions began to escalate in the other ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. In light of these developments, while inflation pressure continued in the US, gold reached new all-time highs. Now, it continues to maintain its positive trend with the expectation of a rate cut ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, which will be announced tomorrow. Technically, the following; The 3700 level can be followed as a psychological resistance point, while the 3675 – 3655 – 3625 levels can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–3700

Support 1–3675
Support 2–3655
Support 3–3625

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