What Happened?
• CBRT reduced rediscount interest rates by 200 basis points.

• US President Trump said that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy will have to make a deal with Russia to end the war.

• White House Spokesperson Desai said the administration will appeal the Court of Appeals' decision to reject the request to remove Fed Member Lisa Cook from office.

• Following her phone call with Trump, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would propose to end the EU's dependence on Russian fossil fuels more quickly.

• The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched an investigation into allegations that vehicle door handles on Tesla Model Y SUVs become inoperable under certain circumstances.

• Japan's exports fell by %2.6 in July.

EURUSD
The pair, which opened the new day at 1.186, maintained a mixed tone during the following trading hours. The pair exhibited a significant upward trend during the previous trading day, testing its highest level in the last four years. Having been unable to surpass 1.180 for a long time, the pair broke through that resistance and rose to 1.186. If we were to project this upward trend, the pair's inflationary pressures have become a challenge in nearly all global markets in recent years, particularly following the pandemic, following the subsequent economic contraction, both due to increased social spending and various economic factors. It was at this point that the US and Europe began to diverge. Europe, which managed this situation relatively better, brought inflation under control before the US and lowered interest rates faster than the US. Unlike Europe, which is currently undergoing a period of disinflation, interest rates in the US remained high due to tariffs and labor market uncertainties. If the Fed's interest rate decision, which will be announced today, is expected to be 4.25%, the subsequent press release could cause significant volatility for the currency pair. Technically, the resistance levels at 1.1880, 1.1950, and 1.2016 can be monitored, while the support levels at 1.1830, 1.1782, and 1.1720 can be monitored.

Resistance 1–1.1880
Resistance 2– 1.1950
Resistance 3– 1.2016

Support 1– 1.1830
Support 2– 1.1782
Support 3– 1.1720

OIL
Oil began the new trading day on a mixed note. Crude, which opened at $64.59, maintained its mixed trend throughout the trading hours. Today, there are two key agenda items closely related to the oil market. The first is Crude Oil Inventories, which will be released at 5:30 PM Turkish time. The Fed's interest rate decision, which will be announced at 9:00 PM Turkish time, could trigger volatility in the oil market. Recently, US President Donald Trump made an interesting proposal to Europe, alluding to sanctions against Russia. He stated that Europe's imposition of 50-100% tariffs on China would negatively impact the Russian economy and that, given this devastation, it would be unsustainable to continue the war. This intriguing proposal received little response from the European side. While sanctions and tariffs mean the same thing in the US, it appears they do not mean the same thing in Europe. Any decision on this issue could trigger volatility in the oil market. If we examine the Crude product technically, the levels 65.06 – 66.09 – 67.58 can be followed as resistance points, and the levels 64.01 – 62.90 – 61.50 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1–65.06
Resistance 2–66.09
Resistance 3–67.58

Support 1–64.01
Support 2–62.90
Support 3- 61.50

Gold
Safe haven gold started the new trading day on a negative note. Gold started the new trading day at 3691 and retreated to 3674 in the following trading hours. The Fed's interest rate decision, the most important data stream of the week, will be announced at 9:00 PM Turkish time. Looking at the data set, the expectation is a 25 bp cut. If the interest rate decision comes as expected, the clues about monetary policy to be given at the press conference to be held immediately afterwards at 9:30 PM will be of significant importance. US Retail Sales data, on the other hand, came in 0.4 percentage points above expectations. A brief look at the released data set shows that the higher-than-expected figures for both core retail sales and retail sales appear to be inversely proportional to the previously released labor force data. The moderate increase in the unemployment rate and other data sets present the following picture. The increase in spending while the labor force remains weak are some of the arguments that will make things difficult for the Fed. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. Technically; The levels 3685 and 3700 can be followed as resistance points, while the levels 3655 – 3625 – 3600 can be followed as support points.

Resistance 1– 3685
Resistance 2 – 3685

Support 1–3655
Support 2–3625
Support 3–3600

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