What Happened?

• The Fed cut interest rates after 9 months and reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points.

• Fed Chair Powell: As policy rates come down, this will also lower mortgage rates

• The US House of Representatives has made progress on a short-term funding bill that will avert a partial government shutdown.

• JP Morgan: Fed rate cut could support emerging market assets.

• The People's Bank of China kept the seven-day reverse repo rate % unchanged at 1.40.

• The Brazilian Central Bank kept interest rates steady, signaling a long-term halt.

EURUSD
The pair began the new trading day flat. Opening the day at 1.181, the pair maintained its calm tone in the following trading hours. After a rather volatile day, the pair tested 1.191 with the Fed's interest rate decision, but it failed to sustain that level, retreating to 1.181. Yesterday, another important data set from Europe was the Consumer Price Index. The data set showed a 2% reading, 0.1 points below expectations. It appears that inflation in Europe has remained stable for six months. In Europe, where inflation has been stable, an economic cooling is beginning to occur. Growth and labor force data may now become more important for Europe than inflation. The unemployment rate in the eurozone was announced as 6.4%, but this data set reveals its lowest levels in history. In Europe, where economic developments are on track, growth data has been decelerating compared to previous periods. Investments in Europe's new employment opportunities and labor market could significantly strengthen Europe's position in the coming period. Technically, resistance levels can be monitored at 1.1830, 1.1907, and 1.2014, while support levels can be monitored at 1.1736, 1.1672, and 1.1584.

Resistance 1–1.1830
Resistance 2– 1.1907
Resistance 3– 1.2014

Support 1– 1.1736
Support 2– 1.1672
Support 3– 1.1584

OIL
As the week draws to a close, oil began the new day on a downward trend. Crude, which opened at 63.96, retreated to 63.55 in the following trading hours. Looking back over the past two months, geopolitical risks and economic data flows continue to influence oil, which continues to search for direction. Crude Oil Inventories data released at 5:30 PM Turkish Time (GMT+3) fell well short of expectations. While significantly lower than expected, the stockpile indicates high demand for oil, suggesting a positive development for oil. Meanwhile, the economic cooling continues in Europe, which has been experiencing a period of disinflation. Growth data remains crucial in terms of oil demand for Europe, which has maintained its 2% inflation target for the past six months. Another important data set looms large: the Fed's interest rate decision. The Fed cut its interest rate, announced at 9:00 PM Turkish Time (GMT+3), by 25 basis points to 4%. Crude fell nearly 1% during the session following the release of the data. Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. For the Crude product, resistance levels at 64.67, 65.93, and 67.48 can be monitored, while support levels at 63.00, 61.60, and 59.88 can be monitored.

Resistance 1–64.67
Resistance 2–65.93
Resistance 3–67.48

Support 1–63.00
Support 2–61.60
Support 3- 59.88

Gold
The Fed's wind blew through gold last trading day. Safe-haven gold first reached a new all-time high with the Fed's interest rate decision announced yesterday, but then lost significant value. The new all-time high was recorded at $3,707. The Fed's interest rate decision was announced as 4%, in line with expectations. Market expectations have already been met. In a press statement immediately following the interest rate decision, Fed Chair Powell stated that tariffs are driving up prices on certain goods, which is why inflation is trending upwards in the short term. According to Chair Powell, he emphasized that time is still needed to understand the impact of the tariffs. Generally speaking, the persistent inflation in the US, which still has a weak labor market, appears to be a serious impasse for the US. Previously, President Trump had cut interest rates against Fed Chair Powell.
He has emphasized the need for this several times. In response to a question, Chairman Powell responded, "I believe we will not lose our independence." Geopolitical risks and economic data flow will be closely monitored. Technically, the levels 3655, 3675, and 3700 can be monitored as resistance levels, while the levels 3625, 3605, and 3580 can be monitored as support levels.

Resistance 1– 3655
Resistance 2 – 3675
Resistance 3 – 3700

Support 1–3625
Support 2–3605
Support 3–3580

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