This week, the focus is on non-farm payrolls in the US and inflation data domestically…

Data released in the US last week generally presented a mixed picture. Core PCE in April indicated a gradual slowdown in inflation. However, it still remains above the Fed’s %2 target. This situation shows that interest rate cut expectations have not been completely shelved, but the timing remains uncertain. Consumer Confidence data came in above expectations at 97.5 in May. The increase in the current situation index in particular indicates that spending may be supported in the short term. The picture is not clear in the data received regarding the manufacturing sector. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved from -19 to -15.3, indicating that the contraction is slowing down. However, the Richmond Fed Index remained at -10 levels. Signs of recovery in the sector are limited. On the housing side, pending home sales fell sharply in April, at %7.7 per month. This shows that mortgage rates remaining at high levels continue to limit housing demand. Finally, statements from many Fed officials were also followed throughout the week. Members such as Goolsbee, Logan and Bostic emphasized that it is too early to cut interest rates. This has strengthened the theme of “higher interest rates for longer” in the markets. Therefore, employment and PMI data to be released this week may be decisive in terms of the direction of the markets.

In the Eurozone, inflation and the ECB's interest rate policy were at the forefront last week. The preliminary CPI data for May fell to %2.1 annually, while the core CPI fell to %2.8. These data reinforced the expectation that the ECB would cut interest rates by 25 basis points on June 6. On the growth side, the composite PMI fell from 50.4 to 49.5, indicating a new contraction in economic activity. While the services PMI weakened, the recovery on the manufacturing side was limited. The PPI data also increased by %1.9 annually, indicating that inflationary pressures were weakening. The unemployment rate remained stable at %6.2. This week, while the expectation of an interest rate cut carried over from last week continues, retail sales, services PMI and PPI data stand out. These data may shape the ECB's interest rate decision on June 6.

Yurt içinde geçtiğimiz hafta büyüme verilerini izledik. Türkiye ekonomisi yılın ilk çeyreğinde yıllık %2,0 büyüme gösterdi. Foreks anketine göre beklentiler %2,2 seviyesindeydi. Sıkı para politikasının etkisi ile BIST-100 endeksindeki satıcılı seyrin geçtiğimiz hafta da devam ettiğini izledik. Bu hafta açıklanacak enflasyon verilerinde beklenti altında gelecek bir veri endekse yeniden alıcılı seyri getirebilir. Hafta sonu açıklanan İTO verilerine göre perakende fiyatlarda aylık %2,83 artarken, yıllık enflasyon Mayıs ayında %46,57 seviyesine gerçekleşti. Nisan ayında %47,21 seviyesine çıkmıştı. Foreks anketine göre Salı günü açıklanacak enflasyonun Mayıs ayında aylık %2,10, yıllık %36,15 artış göstermesini bekleniyor.

The dollar index (DXY), which was suppressed last week, finished the week at 99.33 with a %0.22 gain. US 10-year bond yields finished the week at %4.40. US stock markets followed a positive trend last week. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 gained %1.88, the Nasdaq gained %2.01, and the Dow Jones Industrial gained %1.60. An ounce of gold finished last week at $3,289 with a %2.04 loss. Brent oil finished the week at $62,607.

This week, global markets will follow non-farm payrolls in the US, the ECB interest rate decision in the Eurozone, industrial production in Germany, the Central Bank decision in China, household spending in Japan, and domestic inflation data. We will also follow composite, services, and manufacturing PMI data from all regions this week.

In the US, nonfarm payrolls data is in focus this week. The data, which the Fed is closely following in terms of employment, may affect interest rate cut pricing this week. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 130,000 in May. In addition, PMI data, factory orders, JOLTS, ADP private sector employment, and trade balance are also on the data agenda. Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.3 in May. Among the employment data, ADP private sector employment is expected to increase by 110,000 in May.

Yurt içinde önümüzdeki hafta çekirdek TÜFE, TÜFE ve ÜFE verileri odakta olacak. Bu veriler, enflasyon görünümüne ilişkin beklentileri şekillendireceği için piyasalar tarafından yakından izlenecek. TÜFE verilerine bakıldığında, Nisan 2025’te aylık %3,00, yıllık ise %37,86 oranında artış kaydedilmiştir. Çekirdek TÜFE aynı dönemde aylık bazda %3,34, yıllık bazda ise %37,12 oranında artış göstermiştir. Öte yandan Nisan ayında ÜFE, aylık bazda %2,76 oranında artarken, yıllık bazda %22,50 seviyesinde gerçekleşmiştir. Bununla birlikte, İstanbul Sanayi Odası Türkiye İmalat PMI, Nisan ayında bir önceki aya göre değişim göstermeyerek 47,3 seviyesinde kalmış, bu da sektörün performansındaki bozulmanın sürdüğüne işaret etmiştir. Diğer yandan, döviz kuru gelişmeleri açısından izlenen TÜFE bazlı Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru endeksi Nisan ayında bir önceki aya göre 1,55 puan azalarak 72,12’ye gerilemiştir. Son olarak, mevsim etkilerinden arındırılmış özel kapsamlı TÜFE de Nisan ayında aylık %2,65 oranında artış kaydetmiştir

Research Department

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