BIST100 Index
BIST100 index moved in the 9547-9679 band in yesterday's transactions. The index closed at 9686 points with a gain of %0.28 at the end of the day. On a daily basis, the Industrial index increased by %0.26 and the Banking index closed with a loss of %0.18. In the Banking index (XBANK), the highest 13832 points were tested yesterday due to the effect of the positive image that has continued for the last week. XBANK, which completed the day above 13000 points in the last four trading days, attempted to settle above 13560 points on its 200-day AO. If 13560 points turns into support in XBANK, the 14000-14250 region can be targeted. We observed that the profit sales that came during the day yesterday were met at 13635 points. In possible profit sales in XBANK, the 5-day AO, which rose to 13450 points, can be followed as the first support, and 13250-1300 can be followed as the important support zone.
The BIST100 index, which started yesterday's transactions horizontally, turned upward again with the sales coming during the day being met at 9630 points. With the passing of the descending channel upper band from March and the 50-day AO (9360), the positive image increased in the index, and we are watching the effort to stay above the 200-day AO resistance of 9625 points in the last two trading days. On the other hand, the descending channel upper band from December 2024 is at 9680 points. We think that a settlement above 9680 points is needed for the start of the medium-term rising trend. If the sales in the banking (XBANK) index were met at 13635 points yesterday and the upward momentum continues in the rest of the week, 9800 resistance can be targeted in BIST100. The 5-day AO of the index, which we follow in the short term, approached 9600 points. In possible profit sales, 9600 can be monitored as a stop-loss for short-term positions. Below this level, there are short-term supports at 9350 and 9200. The rising trend that started last week after the May inflation data, which came below expectations, may continue towards the 9800-10000 resistances as long as the 9600-9500 support zone is maintained. Following the inflation data, expectations for a reduction in the indicator interest rate at the Monetary Policy (PPK) Meeting to be held on June 19 have increased. When the latest situation in technical indicators is examined, the stochastic, momentum and RSI that we follow in the short-term direction are moving towards the buying zones. The MACD indicator that we follow in the medium-term technical direction has risen above the zero axis on a daily basis and has switched to the “BUY” position in the last three trading days. The index, which tested the highest level of 2.48 cents in dollar terms in yesterday's transactions, closed the day at 2.47. If the 50-day AO in dollar terms remains above 2.42 cents, an effort to settle above 2.50 cents (medium-term resistance) in the short term may be observed. The index has moved in the 2.28-2.97 cent band in dollar terms this year.
PPI in the US, domestic industrial production data in focus…
ABD’de dün TÜFE verileri odaktaydı. TÜFE, mayıs ayında aylık %0,1 artarak yıllık bazda %2,5 beklentisinin altında %2,4 olarak açıklandı. Verinin ardından Fed’in ilki Eylül’de iki çeyrek puan indirim yapacağı beklentilerinde artış görüldü. Tarife görüşmeleri tarafında ise ABD-Çin arasındaki görüşmelerde Trump anlaşmaya varıldığını açıkladı. ABD’nin açıklamasına göre ABD Çin’e %55, Çin ise ABD’ye %10 tarife uygulayacak. Bunun yanında Çin’in nadir toprak elementlerinin ABD’ye ihracatına, ABD’nin ise Çinli öğrencilerin ABD’de eğitimine devam etmesine izin verdiği belirtildi. Gelişmeler olumlu yorumlansa da, kalıcı bir ilerleme kaydedilmemesi risk iştahını sınırladı. Ortadoğu’da artan jeopolitik gerilim de piyasalarda baskı yarattı. Yesterday, the S&P 500 lost %0.27, the Nasdaq lost %0.50, while the Dow Jones finished the day flat. The focus of the Eurozone in recent days has been the talks between the US and China. Progress in these talks is increasing expectations that there could be an agreement on the US-EU side. However, EU officials maintain a cautious approach on this issue. The EU believes that trade talks with the US will continue beyond Trump's July 9 deadline. The EU continues to prepare its own retaliatory plans in case a satisfactory result is not achieved. Euro Stoxx 50 lost 0.79% yesterday %. Yurt içinde haftaya yapılacak PPK toplantısında dair beklentiler fiyatlanmaya devam ediyor. TCMB, son iki işlem gününde toplam 200mlr TL’lik 1 haftalık repo ihalesi açtı. Bu hamle ile son iki haftadır %49 ile koridorun üst bandından geçen ortalama fonlama faizi, Salı günü 43 baz puan gerileyerek %48,55 seviyesinde gerçekleşti. TCMB’nin haftalık fonlamayı artırarak ortalama fonlama maliyetini düşürmesi, faiz indirimi yapılacağına dair bir sinyal olarak görülüyor. Haftanın geri kalanında da 100mlr TL’lik ihale açmaya devam edilmesi halinde indirim beklentileri güçlenebilir. Bugün açıklanacak sanayi üretimi veriler XUSIN açısından önemli olabilir.
Asian stock markets are trading bullish this morning…
Following the positive results from the US-China talks, Asian stock markets are trading with buyers. Futures markets in the US are negative this morning. News that Israel will launch an attack on Iran last night may put pressure on markets this morning. Today, global markets will focus on US PPI, while domestic industrial production data will be monitored. Following the expected CPI data, PPI data will be closely monitored today. Core PPI is expected to increase by %0.3 monthly and %3.1 annually. Headline PPI is expected to increase by %0.2 monthly and %2.6 annually. We expect the BIST 100 index to start the day horizontally. We think that a settlement above 9680 points is needed for the index to start a medium-term rising trend. If the sales in the banking (XBANK) index were met at 13635 points yesterday and the upward momentum continues in the rest of the week, the 9800 resistance can be targeted in BIST100. 9600 can be monitored as a stop-loss for short-term positions in possible profit sales.
VIOP30 Near Term Contract
The VIOP near-term contract closed yesterday at the 10922 settlement price. The contract continues to trend upwards above the 10850 level. The technical outlook is positive in the near-term contract, which tested the highest level of 10976 yesterday. Especially with closings above 10900, the 11000 resistance maintains its importance in the short term. In the continuation of the upward movement, the 11100 and 11250 resistances can continue to be monitored. In case the transactions are moved below the 10800 level in possible pullbacks, the 10700 and 10650 supports can be monitored. Below these levels, 10500 maintains its critical importance.
USD/TL Spot
Dollar/TL moved in the 39.0836-39.2130 band yesterday. If the exchange rate closes below 39.10, the 39.0 level and the 38.95 psychological support may be considered important. In the exchange rate, where we see the narrowing of the trading band, closing above 39.20 is required for the continuation of the upward movement. In this case, the 39.35 and 39.40 resistances can be monitored. The 39.50 resistance above these levels also maintains its importance. Domestic industrial production data will be in focus today. Industrial production had increased by %3.4 monthly and %2.4 annually in March. The CPI data, which came below expectations in the Dollar Index (DXY), caused pressure. We are watching that movements around the 99 level continue. We also saw that the index fell back below this level yesterday after the CPI data. In possible upward movements, the 99.50-100 resistances can be monitored. If the selling pressure continues, 98.50 will be an important support, while 98.0-97.75 levels can be followed. After the CPI data today, PPI data will be followed. Core PPI is expected to increase by %0.3 monthly and %3.1 annually. Headline PPI is expected to be announced with a monthly increase of %0.2 and an annual increase of %2.6.
EURO/USD Parity
The EUR/USD pair moved in the 1.1405-1.1498 band yesterday. We see the continuation of the upward movement in the pair due to the depreciation of the dollar. In particular, the fact that transactions move above the 1.14 level can be interpreted as positive from a technical perspective. While 1.15 is an important resistance in the short term, there are 1.15 and 1.1550 resistances above this level. Above these levels is the 1.1575 resistance, which is the peak of the last 3.5 years. The 1.14 level is critical in possible pullbacks. If this level is exceeded in the downward direction, sales may continue to the 1.1350 level. There are supports of 1.1320 and 1.13 below this level. The US CPI data was in focus in the pair yesterday. The consumer price index (CPI) in the US increased by %0.1 monthly in May and was realized as %2.4 annually, below the expectations of %2.5. Today, following the CPI data, the PPI May data is on the agenda in the US. Core PPI is expected to increase by %0.3 monthly and %3.1 annually. Headline PPI is expected to increase by %0.2 monthly and %2.6 annually. If the PPI data is also announced below expectations, we may see the upward movement in the parity continue.
XAU/USD (Gold Ounce/$)
XAU/USD paritesi dünkü işlemlerde 3315-3360 aralığında hareket ederek günü pozitif yönde tamamladı. Ons altın, uzun vadeli yükselen trendini korumaya devam ediyor. Aynı zamanda mevcut fiyat, kısa vadeli düşen trend çizgisinin üzerinde seyrediyor. Fiyatın kısa vadeli düşen trend çizgisinin üzerinde seyretmesi, yukarı yönlü momentumun devam edebileceğine işaret ediyor. İlk direnç seviyesi olarak 6 Mayıs’ta test edilen 3430 dolar takip edilebilir. Yukarı yönlü hareketin korunması durumunda ise, Nisan ayında görülen tüm zamanların en yüksek seviyesi olan 3500 dolar yeniden gündeme gelebilir. Bununla birlikte, 50 günlük ortalama olan 3310 dolar seviyesinin altında gerçekleşebilecek çoklu günlük kapanışlar, dört kez test edilen ana yükselen trend desteğinin aşağı yönlü kırılması riskini artırabilir. Bu durumda, satış baskısı derinleşerek 3250 seviyesine ve 100 günlük hareketli ortalama olan 3210 dolar seviyesine doğru bir düzeltme hareketi başlaması olasılığı gündeme gelebilir. Dün açıklanan ABD enflasyon verileri, altın fiyatları açısından pozitif bir tablo sundu. ABD enflasyonunun beklentilerin altında kalmasıyla birlikte, Fed’in Eylül ayında faiz indirimi yapabileceği beklentileri güç kazandı. Bu durum doları baskılarken, altına destek veriyor. CME FedWatch verilerine göre faiz indirimi olasılığı %62’ye yükseldi. Orta Doğu’daki jeopolitik riskler de güvenli liman talebini artırıyor. CBS News’e göre, ABD yetkilileri İsrail’in İran’a yönelik operasyon için tamamen hazır olduğunu bildirdi. İran’ın olası karşı saldırısı gündemde. Trump’ın çelik ve alüminyum tarifelerinde erteleme sinyali vermesi ve Çin’in nadir toprak elementleri ihracatına 6 aylık sınırlama getirmesi, ticaret cephesinde belirsizlikleri artırıyor. Bu da doları zayıflatırken, altını destekliyor. Kısa vadede ise yatırımcıların dikkati, Perşembe günü açıklanacak ABD ÜFE verilerinde olacak. Bu verinin de beklenenden düşük gelmesi halinde Fed’in faiz indirimi beklentilerini daha da güçlenebilir. Cuma günü ise Michigan Üniversitesi tüketici güveni ve enflasyon beklentileri açıklanacak. Tüm bu veriler, XAU/USD’nin yönü üzerinde belirleyici olacak. Özellikle düşük gelen veriler, altın fiyatlarının yukarı yönlü hareketini destekleyebilir.
GBP/USD Parity
The GBP/USD pair closed the day positively horizontally by moving between 1.3464-1.3568 in yesterday's transactions. The pair is trading close to the upper band of the ascending channel, which corresponds to approximately 1.3600. At the same time, the pair continues to stay above the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. This technical outlook indicates that the upward trend is maintained, while the price action continues to stay above the rising trend line within the channel. In upward pricing, the 1.3600 level can be monitored as the first resistance. If this level is exceeded, the highest level in 2022, 1.3750, and then 1.3800 will be followed as the next resistance zones. In pullbacks, the 1.3450 level is in the short-term support position. If this level is broken, the 1.3350 level can be monitored as intermediate support; if the sales deepen, the 1.3290 level can be monitored as strong support. The GBP/USD pair rose after the US inflation data came in below expectations. The announcement of the US CPI data below expectations increased expectations in the market that the Fed may cut interest rates in September. This situation supported the weakening of the dollar and the upward movement of the parity. The Producer Price Index data to be released today is important in terms of the short-term direction of the dollar as it will show the trend in the producer leg of inflation. On the UK side, the data flow is quite limited this week. The monthly GDP data for April to be released on Thursday is expected to have a limited impact on the parity as it belongs to the past period. The Industrial and Manufacturing Production data to be released on the same day is expected to remain in the contraction zone. This situation is among the factors that may limit the rise in the pound. In general, while the interest rate cut expectations regarding the Fed continue to support GBP/USD, the weak data from the UK raises questions about the permanence of the increase.
Research Department
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